One of the more annoying golf commentary tropes, certainly in the UK, is that the PGA Tour is a point-and-shoot exercise; a series of lights-out, 59-threatening, soulless and even skill-less tournaments, each one indistinguishable from the next. It is of course nonsense, a fact demonstrated by the firm-and-fast Houston Open, the execution test of Torrey Pines, the winds of the Florida swing and, just last week, the blend of heavy rain and thick rough which made the Wells Fargo Championship so demanding.
The AT&T Byron Nelson, however, ought to live up to the stereotype in its second year at TPC Craig Ranch. Wide, soft, zoysiagrass fairways and big, flat, pure bentgrass greens threw up a shootout won by KH Lee in 25-under par last year, and that's despite some miserable weather right towards the end of the tournament. This week's forecast is for clear skies and calm winds and while there's been nothing like the amount of rain which had fallen prior to the 2021 renewal, it's unlikely that the exam paper has altered all that much.
You might think that would dissuade the best players in the world from taking part, given that they're all preparing for next week's PGA Championship at a sure to be demanding Southern Hills, but that's not necessarily the case. Nine of the world's top 20 are in attendance, tripling last week's tally up in Maryland, and that means we've something that is actually quite rare: a genuinely low-scoring event where the likelihood of a world-class champion is so obviously strong.
This one-time amateur star is among the most promising maidens on the circuit and while Davis Riley could pip him at a course where his red-hot putting will be an asset, McNealy's form just has that bit more substance to it, and this looks like a good chance to shine.
Long off the tee, the key improvement in his game over the past 18 months has been his approach play, which saw him rank 169th in the 2019-20 season and 151st last year, but is now becoming a strength. McNealy currently ranks 58th and is fully half a shot per round better than he was, which helps explain why he's not missed a cut in a stroke play event since perhaps struggling under the pressure of playing at home in Vegas last October.
It's fair to say that much of his best form so far has come on more technical courses than this one, such was when second at Pebble Beach and fourth at Harbour Town, but it's still early days and his scoring prowess for a shootout is clear: he's currently sixth in holes-per-eagle and 18th in birdie average, while at 36th in putting he remains one of the more assured operators on the circuit.
Leishman is one of a handful of good putters who feature in the top 30 for strokes-gained approach right now, and that weights-and-measures formula could well be the way into this. Lee excelled in both categories and this is certainly a course where players can reach for driver upon driver, without worrying too much about the consequences of a mishit.
That's great news for Leishman, who has always been down the driving accuracy stats but does pack a punch off the tee, and he hinted that this course is a good fit when opening with a six-under 66 before settling for 21st place a year ago. He gave away a bit too much ground off the tee back then but it was his work around the greens that proved particularly costly, whereas his approach play (21st) and putting (fifth) offered real encouragement.
His around-the-green game was exceptional at the Masters last month (second) and his driving has been much better this season than it was last, so there's cause for optimism that his game could come together at a course which he's certainly suited to. Leishman has won with scores of 23- and 26-under on the PGA Tour, as well as in 20-under in the Zurich Classic, and he's long been a prolific birdie-maker (14th this season).
Now down at 48th in the world rankings, he last fell outside the top 50 at the end of 2016, and it took him just a handful of starts to spring into life and win again during an excellent 2017 campaign. A class act with plenty in his favour and having struck his irons brilliantly despite a missed cut last week, he looks underestimated here.
The aforementioned Kizzire is another occasionally wild driver who will enjoy the space afforded to him by Craig Ranch, as we saw last year when he was 66th in driving accuracy but managed rounds of 63 and 64 to take third place. Twice a winner on the PGA Tour and with his own approach play improved this year, he'd have made the staking plan but for going off the boil somewhat of late.
Instead, I'll take the hint and put up MATTHEW WOLFF at three-figure prices.
Wolff returned from a month off to finish 25th last week, a massive upturn on his fortunes in the spring which included rounds of 81 at both Sawgrass and Augusta. The fact he told reporters after an opening 65 that he didn't see it coming because he'd gone through sleeves of balls at home has to be taken seriously, but he was still there in sixth place heading into the final round and it was a very encouraging display.
He'll have to build on it and as one of the most volatile players around that's no guarantee, but he does boast seven top-six finishes since the start of 2020, a run of 50 events, and each of them came after he'd made the cut on his previous start. Given that he's missed 14 of them in this span, together with a couple of withdrawals and a disqualification for good measure, he has somewhat marked our cards.
That might prove true again and the space on offer at Craig Ranch helps sooth concerns over the odd big miss from the tee. It's also a potential positive that he's playing the course for the first time, because he said so last week at Potomac, telling reporters he often found that such circumstances allowed him to get into the right mindset which has clearly at times been an issue.
Swafford is a three-time PGA Tour winner, including twice under the low-scoring conditions of The American Express, where Lee has played well and there's always an emphasis on stacking up scoring opportunities – remember Jon Rahm's complaints during this year's renewal?
Always an excellent driver of the ball, Swafford's blend of above-average distance and accuracy again aligns him with Lee but what I really like is that he's on course for his best ever year in terms of approach play. He led in that department in the Texas Open and has backed it up in the Masters and the Heritage, his putting coming to the party in the latter for a mid-pack finish.
Much of his good work has been undermined by what he does around the greens, throwing away shots Viktor Hovland-style on a number of occasions this year. Indeed, Hovland is the only PGA Tour player who sits below Swafford in the around the green rankings and whenever a player has a weakness this significant, there is always a chance it proves their undoing.
The move to Craig Ranch last year didn't appear to suit as he missed the cut, but Piercy's iron play was excellent, his 3.3 strokes gained enough to put him third in the field had he been able to maintain it through two more rounds.
He's playing better ahead of his return, with form figures of 12-21-33-37 across his last four starts, and those two key aspects – approach play and putting – have fired separately, ranking ninth for the former two starts ago and ninth in putting at the Heritage.
Piercy has stacks of form in low-scoring events plus a couple of top-sixes at Scottsdale, where Lee was runner-up months before winning here, and a nine-under start to the 3M Open, so if he can dial in those second shots again I'm very hopeful he can again demonstrate that he's best when asked to go out and stack up birdies on a course which is anything but penal.
Winner of the RSM Classic in 21-under, Cook's best form would mark him down as a good fit for this. It includes second place in the Shriners back in 2020, shooting 23-under, and when 22-under was only good enough for fourth place in the Barbasol Championship a year earlier.
He comes here having missed four cuts in a row but he's in much better shape than this time last year, when despite having missed his last 11 he shot 68-68 to lie 27th at halfway before fading over the weekend as a miserable campaign continued.
This time, not only has he been scoring better, but three of his last four missed cuts have been on the number, and his approach play looks like it's warming up, gaining 1.42 on the field in Mexico and then 2.05 last week, where he started well but missed three very short putts on Friday to come up a single shot short once more.
It may be then that he's closer than first appears and given how well suited he'd be at his best, and that he played nicely here for two rounds last year, I'm inclined to take the ultimate flier on a player who threatened to cause a massive shock on the eve of the Masters as a Monday qualifier once upon a time.
Posted at 1040 BST on 10/05/22
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