Florida has never hosted the US Open, but if it ever does, chances are it will look a lot like the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event has revelled as a put-up-or-shut-up precursor to The PLAYERS Championship in recent times, although I do wonder whether some might have felt it was becoming detrimental to their chances at Sawgrass to have spent a weekend here at Bay Hill.
Rory McIlroy could be one of them. A winner here in 2018, shooting 18-under, McIlroy remains a course specialist on paper, but the reality is he's found it really tough going except for on Thursdays. In 2021, he led with a 66 but fell to 10th. A year later, he opened with a 65 to again lead, but shot a pair of weekend 76s to finish 13th. "The weekend, it's like crazy golf," he bemoaned. "I feel punch drunk."
And he's not alone. At halfway last year, Viktor Hovland was nine-under; come Sunday night he was four-under, losing out by one. Scottie Scheffler managed the rare feat of entering the final round in fourth place, failing to break par, yet winning. Lucas Herbert's final-round 68 was one of just two sub-70s and saw him climb from mid-table to fifth; Tyrrell Hatton was one shot worse and almost stole the title he'd seemingly lost with a Saturday 78.
The formula has become well-established: see what they do to the course early on, and then gradually turn the screw. That again calls to mind the US Open – remember when people complained that it was too easy after one round at Winged Foot? – and perhaps it's little wonder that the reigning US Open champion, Bryson DeChambeau, so famously won here, and that the latest one, Matt Fitzpatrick, also boasts a fine course record.
Hovland once said that he wasn't overly keen on Florida courses in general, which is off-putting, but he's started to build up a nice record which includes second here a year ago, a top-10 finish in The PLAYERS, second in the WGC-Workday and third at the Valspar.
It should really be his bag, because we know thanks to his wins in the Bahamas and Mexico that he enjoys exposed courses and coping with the wind, and as for grinding it out has has some sneaky encouragement hidden in his US Open record, which began with 12th as an amateur at Pebble Beach and then 13th at Winged Foot.
His win in Dubai last year came in just 12-under so he's not totally reliant on a shootout, and to be frank we don't really need to speculate as to how well Bay Hill suits. Not only was he out in front and arguably a little unfortunate to be collared by Scheffler, but he'd been third at halfway here a year earlier, too.
That's been something of a running theme for the three-time major champion, but his best performances so far this season came on bermuda greens in Hawaii and while his stats say he can putt well anywhere, when he's searching for answers he's most likely to find them close to home.
Spieth putted nicely here on his course debut when fourth in 2021, a result he felt ought to have been even better, and he got away with a modest driving performance that week. "I love bermuda, I love windy conditions, difficult golf courses," he said early on, only to later bemoan a final round that saw him go unrewarded for what he felt was a string of quality shots.
Like Zalatoris, he showed himself capable of contending in elite company last year, finishing third behind his former Wake Forest teammate in the PGA Championship at Southern Hills before going one better thanks to a closing eagle at St Andrews.
Those were two of seven top-three finishes, also including the extremely difficult Wells Fargo, and he was again forced to settle for second behind Abraham Ancer in the Saudi International last month.
Fowler has been back working with coach Butch Harmon for a while and Harmon says he'll win this year, potentially more than once. We should take those words with a pinch of salt of course but he's right about one thing: Fowler, his swing restored, is back playing his best golf in years.
Sixth at the Fortinet and then second when contending in the ZOZO Championship, Fowler ended 2022 on a high and he's largely backed it up, making every cut this year and producing a sustained run of high-class iron play. He's ranked ninth, third and ninth across his last three starts, and that's translated into finishes of 11th, 10th and 20th.
Two of these have been in almost identical fields and while 10th in Phoenix came at a course he adores, that's not the case for his performances either side. Torrey Pines has caused him many a headache down the years despite some early promise there, while 20th at Riviera matched his best finish and was by far his best score at that famous old course.
Suh led the field in fairways and ranked second in greens at the Honda, ranking second also in strokes-gained tee-to-green. It was a performance which had been coming having made his previous eight cuts, and he's the most likely rookie of the year candidate now that he's bedded in.
A formerly top-class amateur, the sky really is the limit for the winner of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, and unlike most tournaments he's played so far, this one isn't new. Suh received an invite to compete in the API while still an amateur in 2019 and he did well, narrowly missing the cut after a solid opening round.
Brehm has done very little to suggest he can win an event like this to be frank, but he did take his chance in Puerto Rico a year ago with a sensational front-running display to triumph by six shots.
The Puerto Rico Open does share some similarities with Bay Hill in terms of conditions, so it was interesting to see Brehm produce his best golf since that win when 14th in the Honda Classic last week, a nice primer on another tough, Florida-style course.
Three good rounds included a Saturday 64 and he is an enormous hitter, so if he turns up in the same form then it's not difficult to envisage him hanging around inside the top 20 all of a sudden.
That immediately makes him of interest at just about the maximum price so let's see if we can get Rahm and co beaten in the most spectacular way possible.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 27/02/23
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