This speculator autumn in Europe has seen Rory McIlroy twice beaten at odds-on in-running, Jon Rahm suffer the same fate on home soil, and two players capture big, national opens at 150/1 and upwards. There have been fancied winners, Tyrrell Hatton chief among them, but even he was almost done by a 500/1 chance who would have been heading into retirement had he not come alive in Scotland.
It took just one golfer in each of the Irish and Spanish Opens, plus the BMW PGA Championship, to prevent a run of McIlroy-McIlroy-Rahm-Hatton, and this is the mental hurdle you have to clear if you're backing an 11/4 chance in a golf tournament. Precisely how many of those in the field for the Andalucia Masters you consider up to winning doesn't really matter: there are, in the end, a lot of them who could be this week's Angel Hidalgo.
Rahm, though, isn't much shorter than he was in the Open de Espana, despite there being no Hatton, no Tommy Fleetwood and no Shane Lowry. That's probably because he doesn't have such obvious course form at Real Club de Golf Sotogrande, but with the one-two from last year absent, hardly any do. Besides, Rahm played the European Nations Cup here as an amateur and fared well, so it shouldn't be an excuse.
That said, Rahm did lose the Open de Espana as much as Hidalgo stood up and won it in the end. Their engrossing play-off and the two birdies Rahm found to force it rather masks the fact that he doubled the 13th hole, less than two months after a stunning implosion from first to fifth at the Olympic Games. With a new baby at home and an exhausting year almost finished now, I don't expect to see him at his absolute best, albeit he may not need to be.
Sotogrande made its DP World Tour debut last year and saw Adrian Meronk storm to victory from off the pace. It was in some ways a freak performance, because Meronk drove it far worse than he ordinarily does, his irons were decent but no better, his chipping was bang average, but his putting was out of this world. Assumptions as to how the course suited him are difficult to make; all we know for sure is that the greens certainly did.
Still, with Matti Schmid second and Richard Mansell third, we do see the advantage that can be gained off the tee at a short par 72 with a driveable par-four and four par-fives. These two ranked second and first respectively in that department and between them and Meronk we've a trio of powerhouses, all of whom made at least one eagle along the way as scoring eased up following some poor weather at the start of the tournament.
This week's forecast is for rain in the build-up but clearing to leave a softened course there to be attacked in warm, sunny conditions, furthering the likelihood that driver is again a key club. What was that Rahm price again?
Perhaps TOM MCKIBBIN can be the man to upstage the favourite, in doing so just about securing his PGA Tour card.
McKibbin sits 14th in the Race to Dubai and that's enough to be eighth among those without membership on the world's premiere men's golf circuit, which will certainly be his goal throughout the final four events of the season, of which he intends to play three.
His form since losing a play-off for the Italian Open in June has cooled but the youngster still has two top-10s from his last six appearances, one of them in high-class company at Wentworth, and 27th place in France last week represented a marked step up on his one previous visit to Le Golf National.
Canter hadn't intended to come to Spain for this event but having skipped the BMW PGA and the Dunhill Links following the birth of his second child, plans have changed as he too pursues a PGA Tour card.
Currently just 105 Race to Dubai points behind the man occupying the final spot, Guido Migliozzi, who doesn't play this week, this is a great chance for Canter and I think the course will be an excellent fit, far better for him than Le Golf National.
There, he played much better than the end result as he was two-under when in the middle of the fairway at the par-five 14th on Thursday, eventually shooting two-over after some sloppy mistakes, before a double-bogey from nowhere at his penultimate hole on Friday cost him a set of weekend tee-times.
That's far from guaranteed it must be said, but he was good off the tee in the Dunhill Links, his approach play either side was also of a decent standard, and the putter which powered his stunning end to 2024 began to warm up when 18th last week.
Perhaps then things are coming together and just as McKibbin's iron play might be better than the stats suggest, so might Hojgaard's driving. Last week's course is excessively penal and Wentworth is restrictive, so the one time he's been able to unleash, just as he can here, we saw a jolt of improvement which could be telling.
The young Dane is up on the DP World Tour after three wins on the Challenge Tour and form figures of 13-4-18 since a missed cut in the Irish Open confirm that he has already acclimatised.
What's interesting to me is that he's now up to 107th in the Race to Dubai despite limited appearances and if he can stay above the provisional 115 cut-off for cards, his status will improve. Challenge Tour graduates don't get into all events, not even those who win the Road to Mallorca, and he'll be far better off if he can accrue sufficient points this year.
No doubt that and the small chance he can even get to those two lucrative events in the Middle East explain why Neergaard-Petersen is also in the field in Korea next week but with the Challenge Tour Grand Final immediately afterwards, being able to skip that event would be another big bonus.
This young German topped Q-School last year, here in Spain, and two top-20s in his last three starts have reignited his bid to avoid a return there.
After 17th in Northern Ireland and then 13th in the Open de Espana he missed the cut in the Dunhill Links, but that was only by two shots and he signed off there with a very good round of 69 at Carnoustie, the toughest of the three courses.
With his driver (second in Spain) and putter both firing and 10 of his last 12 rounds par or better, this young powerhouse is more than capable of improving on last year's missed cut, which came during a poor run of form. That extra gear he has in the locker earns him the vote in a tournament where the rest may need it to keep up with Rahm.
Schott is 350/1 with a few smaller firms, 300/1 with Sky Bet, Sporting Index and SpreadEx, 275/1 with bet365, 250/1 with Betfred, or a general 200/1 if you want eight places. Readers will have to do what they can with their individual circumstances, but my advice is a minimum-stakes bet at the biggest odds you can find.
I'd love to include a Spaniard or two as we saw again recently how often they prove capable of raising their games on home soil, but only Alejandro del Rey appealed. He does have the powerhouse game I'm looking for and has drifted to a tempting price, but this has the look of a predictable tournament in ideal weather where the bigger names dominate, including I hope some of the youngest and best on this fine circuit.
Posted at 1800 BST on 14/10/24
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