There are two schools of thought when it comes to the prospects of the four Ryder Cup winners in the field for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, the one and only DP World Tour event which could feel in any way appropriate just days after another gripping battle of Europe versus America.
One is that Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre should be in no fit state to compete. Each of them ended the Ryder Cup in a singles match that went the distance before drinking long into Sunday night. To do all that and then fly from New York to Scotland and expect to be able to beat a good field in a tournament which is always a bit of a slog seems fanciful.
The other is that each of the four will be flying high following their key contributions to the winning European cause and, without even waking up, might be able to soar into the mix. This has happened twice after home games recently, thanks to Martin Kaymer (2010) and Fitzpatrick himself (2023), and Hatton was runner-up in 2021 to add weight to the idea that the trip from the USA doesn't necessarily have to be a major issue for these global travellers.
You can find supporting evidence for both arguments, but to my eye there is actually quite a big difference in outcome in the renewals which follow an away Ryder Cup. One defeated European made the top 10 behind a pre-elite Hatton in 2016 and while that figure trebled in 2021, in the end they were all beaten. Perhaps most tellingly, four players came to Scotland from Medinah, scene of Europe's previous away win, and none cracked the top 30.
World-class players can defy all logic, something we saw throughout last week, but given the shape of this market they just have to be taken on. That would be true under any format, anywhere. This tournament – a pro-am played across three links courses – is already prone to strange results, such as a maximum-price first win for Oliver Wilson and a final hurrah for David Howell. Last year it could so easily have gone to a 400/1 shot in Nicolas Colsaerts.
Speaking as someone whose selections fared extremely badly last week, part of me would like a simple DP World Tour event absent of additional volatility, but there's no escaping the fact that this isn't one of those. Embrace and accept that volatility or don't bet on it are both are perfectly valid paths to take.
Before we get to the profile we're looking for, there is one point I've made before that I have to make again. When the weather is nasty, people tend to assume the last place you want to be is, well, Carnastie itself. But this is wrong. Carnoustie is going to be hard whatever the weather but is actually more sheltered in places, whereas Kingsbarns, a picnic when it's calm and sunny, suddenly becomes brutal. Anyone unable to score there on a miserable day may find that they've landed the very worst of the draw, although similar comments apply to the Old Course too.
Without the benefit of that draw – life I'm afraid means I cannot sit and wait for it – the rain that is expected on Thursday and Friday is hard to make allowances for. We know that historically the best players begin at Carnoustie, so they may in that sense have a decent start as others struggle elsewhere. But we know as well that this rotation takes in Kingsbarns on Friday, one more reason to take on favourites who might just be there at the very worst time.
The overall profile of the event, come rain or shine, suggests that bigger hitters fare best. That's always been the case at the Old Course and whenever links golf isn't presented in its rawest form, and it's supported by Colsaerts' performance in a particularly low-scoring edition, runner-up finishes for Ross Fisher, Callum Shinkwin, Brooks Koepka and Peter Uihlein, plus wins for Ryan Fox and Lucas Bjerregaard.
One such big-hitter is KRISTOFFER REITAN and the Norwegian can secure PGA Tour membership for 2025 with yet another big performance.
Looking at the Race to Dubai standings, I'm reminded again how fine the margins are in this amazing sport. Marco Penge is already on his way to the PGA Tour yet last year, keeping full status came down to the very last hole of his very last tournament.
Something similar happened to Reitan who, down on the Challenge Tour, won the closing Grand Final thanks in no small part to a big mistake from Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen. Reitan had entered that tournament needing a miracle and got it; now, less than a year later, his entire career has been transformed.
Again that has a lot to do with one shot, the margin of victory after his Sunday charge in the Soudal Open secured his first DP World Tour title, and since then he's gone up another level. Reitan has placed in seven of his last 15 starts, he's hung around in elite company in the Scottish Open and the Open itself, and he's now almost completed a remarkable rise by securing that card.
I selected McKibbin when he was 20th in the Irish Open and absent of anyone of McIlroy's calibre, plus with Hatton arguably a shade less likely to be at his best, this seems an even better opportunity to double his professional tally so at the same sort of price he's hard for me to turn down.
Since then, McKibbin has driven the ball impressively on his way to 11th at Wentworth, where his short-game let him down a little, so he's clearly playing well and as with Reitan, given where he grew up playing the game there should be no excuses where a turbulent weather forecast is concerned.
This young American hits it a very long way and has been driving it well this year, his season ending with a team-best 64 as Jon Rahm's whatever-they're-called won the Team Championship.
Surratt had formed a winning partnership with McKibbin in that event so while it's hard to say he's definitively improved as a player since he missed the cut on debut here 12 months ago, he's certainly progressed in levels of achievement and experience and may now arrive in Scotland really believing a career breakthrough is possible.
The Bullet closed with a round of 64 for 12th in the Irish Open, opened with a round of 67 the following week at Wentworth, shot 79 on Friday to narrowly miss the cut, then pinged the lids again in the Open de France only to this time hang around until the very end of the tournament.
Armitage is now up inside the top 40 on the Race to Dubai and it's hard not to be taken with the way he's gone about it, hitting his irons consistently well ever since the DP World Tour returned from its summer break and, at last, holing a few putts.
Although only 37th there, the fact that that's Lindberg's worst result in five starts shows how well he's playing and I'm drawn to fourth in Denmark, where two powerhouses dominated, as further proof that this tournament really should play to his strengths.
His short-game is hot right now and so is his driving, among the best in this field, so having also been 13th in Crans, 17th in France and 27th at the Belfry, he's been playing well despite a largely less-than-ideal set of courses, rather than because of them.
These three really ought to be made for a Swede who almost won at a links-like course last year and while it'll take a career-best DP World Tour performance to land the place money, let alone win, he's playing well enough to produce it.
Lindberg's compatriot Niklas Lemke has also come back from a break in much better nick and while not quite among the very longest hitters these days, the veteran is well above average. He could go well at a price as could Danish duo Bjerregaard and Hamish Brown, both having shown some promise when selected last time.
But I want to roll the dice with ROSS FISHER and hope that he can pull a Wilson by winning an event in which he's been a three-time runner-up in the past.
Hand on heart there's little in the form book to suggest he's about to end a victory drought which stretches back more than a decade, but he's fighting for his life from the cut-off point in the Race to Dubai, entering this week ranked 114th and with nothing in hand over the man the other side of the line.
A former Ryder Cup winner and major contender, Fisher has the class to find something with his back against the wall and there may be no better place than this event, given what we've seen from Colsaerts, Wilson, Marc Warren and various other experienced campaigners down the years, all of them able to lean into the different vibe of this tournament and capitalise on its bumper purse.
Fisher's iron play has been generally good and his driver has twice in four starts, especially so in Denmark. That's the one real opportunity he's had to put that club to use over the last two months and if he can do so again across three courses he knows and loves, he could just make a mockery of massive odds.
To do that will require something better on the greens, but Fisher has gone from -0.75 strokes per round from January to June this year to -0.08 since then, so there's been improvement there too and any more really could make him this year's Colsaerts. We'll take second place, that's for sure.
Posted at 1800 BST on 29/09/25
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