The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the last of 10 tournaments in the UK and Ireland this year, and as usual there's a strong field for what's a lucrative event. Pro-am it might be, but any time there's a trophy to be won at the Old Course things have to get serious at some stage, while the size of the prize fund means this is an important week for those fighting for their status.
Rory McIlroy is back having skipped last year's renewal, and with his status as the world's best driver restored he's right at the top of his game. McIlroy landed the FedEx Cup before finishing second at Wentworth and fourth in Italy, with his 13 starts dating back to the Masters showing two wins and nine more places. No wonder he's again chalked up at prices which won't make you money if he does again hit the frame.
Appearing here alongside his dad, McIlroy has plenty to play for and that's before you cast your mind back to July, if you can do so without getting upset. It's impressive how McIlroy has responded to his Open Championship heartache but you can be sure it still hurts, and he might need to be on WhatsApp with Bob Rotella all week if he's to stride these fairways again without breaking down himself.
Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Thomas Pieters are next in the betting, meaning half of next year's European Ryder Cup side are surely here. It's been a good little run for those hoping to join these world-class players in Rome and when you look down the odds list, you'll see any number of names who could make Luke Donald's wild cards, all of them viable candidates for glory this Sunday.
But if you shift focus to the weather forecast, you might think twice about taking short prices. By no means is it set to be foul throughout, and the slow greens and simple pins of this pro-am will always help, but Friday in particular threatens strong winds and heavy rain. With the earliest tee-time set for 9am and rounds lasting beyond six hours, if the forecast holds there won't be anyone who avoids facing the full force of the elements.
Even in fair weather, the three-course rotation and the very nature of links golf adds uncertainty, so this looks a week for taking chances even if strong fields tend to throw up strong rolls of honour. It is no coincidence that this event and the Scottish Open have been more volatile so while the likes of Hatton, Fleetwood and Lowry should play well as they usually do here, they can be taken on along with the favourite.
I'll start with ALEX NOREN, who has all the tools to win this and looks overpriced at 40/1.
The Swede is a 10-time winner on the DP World Tour, four of those coming in the UK and one of them under links conditions, as he saw off subsequent Dunhill winner Hatton in the 2016 Scottish Open.
Third in that event previously and with five Open Championship top-20s from just 10 starts, he's without question a real specialist under these conditions and that extends to cool, damp weather. Like so many Scandinavians, he's thrived here in the UK and this familiarity has so often proven decisive in the Dunhill Links. Even 2019 winner Victor Perez was living in Scotland at the time.
Noren's record here includes third place a decade ago, 11th in 2016 and top-15s in each of his last two starts, and it would be wrong to assume he'd always arrived a better player than he is today. In fact there are parallels with 2012 as he climbed to 51st in the world rankings after his second top-three finish of the year, the other having come in the Scottish Open.
Second behind Branden Grace here in 2012 when in the van throughout, Olesen returned three years later to win the biggest title of his career despite a final-round wobble. In the end he had a couple of shots to spare having built his week around a solid start at Carnoustie, as so many winners of this have done.
Although he's not been a factor since, two missed cuts were by narrow margins and he didn't play the event in 2018, when it came a week after the Ryder Cup. In 2019 he was suspended and last year's effort was his sixth missed cut in succession as he searched desperately for form.
That search ended finally at the Belfry back in May as he conjured a magical finish to win the British Masters to make it two wins in the UK, where he's been based for so long. With a top-10 finish in the Open to his name, Olesen is extremely comfortable under the conditions we'll have this week, and that's underlined further by an outstanding record at Doha and in the often-windy Middle East in General, as it is by his first European Tour win in Sicily.
Lewis endured a miserable Korn Ferry Tour campaign but has gone 13-71-12-16-50 back over here, contending in Denmark, sitting third at halfway in Italy, and even last week featuring close to the places until a difficult Sunday at a course which stifles him, one where he'd done absolutely nothing of note previously.
Having selected him at 150/1 for the Italian Open I felt a little hard done by in watching him suffer in round three, where he was thrown in with McIlroy and Fitzpatrick. It might sound like a dream draw but it's probably a nightmare one for a player still working on things and with confidence diminished, not least a quiet character like Lewis who hasn't always relished the spotlight.
He rallied on Sunday before a late wobble but it was soon clear how positive a performance it had been overall. Whereas in the Czech Republic and Denmark he'd relied on his putter, particularly in the latter event, in Rome he was the best iron player in an elite field. Then last week in France, he ranked ninth off the tee for his best driving display of the year, with his approach work (10th) still of a very high standard. This time, that putter let him down.
It's not uncommon for players with his profile to struggle to get everything to click but it could happen here. Lewis has three top-10 finishes in the event, including when 152nd on the Race to Dubai during a rotten 2013 campaign. He returns nine years later ranked 157th and this time with no winner's exemption, which means he's entering the final stretch with a clear goal in mind.
Fifth in 2019 when shooting 65-64 across the weekend, Lewis even played well here last year when in poor form, and he's scored at all three courses down the years. Carnoustie would nevertheless be the main worry along with how he goes about getting the putter heated up again, but over the past six weeks he's done everything well in bursts and smacks of a player who will soon make it count.
Playing here on an invite and currently without any sort of status for 2023, the uber-talented Lewis has to be worth another go.
At a similar price, two-time winner EWEN FERGUSON has to be on any shortlist and with conditions more likely to suit him than Nicolai Hojgaard, I'm inclined to side with the Scot.
Hojgaard put up a decent defence of his Italian Open title before making the weekend in Paris, where he was shackled off the tee and scored accordingly. He'll be able to open his shoulders again here and I think we'll probably see something from him before the year is out, but battling wind and rain on Friday might just expose him.
It could do the same to Ferguson, whose short-game has been the only real issue during successive missed cuts. However, they were at tough courses he'd never played before so I can give him the benefit of the doubt, especially as his putting has improved, and his work around the greens helped him to win number two in Northern Ireland.
Pulkkanen put in an astonishing display here in 2018, shooting 76 on day one at St Andrews to lie 109th, before rounds of 67, 64 and 69 secured fourth place and earned him his playing rights for the following season. The middle one of the three was the lowest score at Carnoustie by fully three shots that day and nobody bettered 66 there all week.
He came back and opened 65-68 in 2019, too, this time coming unstuck at Carnoustie, so there's ample evidence that he has what it takes to go well in the event and put his power to use at the Old Course.
Best of all, Pulkkanen returns playing some of the best golf of his career. Third place in the Czech Masters came at the course where he'd been second a year earlier, and he's followed it with a formline of 22-MC-23-30, the missed cut coming at Wentworth in a strange event, in elite company, and on a course not made for him.
Last week's 30th was his best performance by far in Paris and before that he'd hung around on the fringes of the places all week in Rome, so having shown he can adapt to all three courses he rates an interesting player at big odds.
Eddie Pepperell and Matt Wallace are two class acts at around the 66/1 mark for those who do want to be a little less speculative, while Wilco Nienaber fell into the Nicolai Hojgaard category as someone I'd have been more inclined to chance had the forecast been better.
Next then is a player who won one of the toughest editions of this tournament in 2018, LUCAS BJERREGAARD.
Ever since he finished 27th on the PGA Tour in July, this formerly top-class prospect has looked to be heading in the right direction. Each of the four cuts he's missed since then have offered some kind of promise and so have the four he's made, not least when third at Celtic Manor.
Despite that effort, Bjerregaard is down at 153rd in the Race to Dubai so he needs a big finish soon if he's to secure his card. It's a familiar storyline at this time year and in Bjerregaard's favour is the fact he's been there and done it before, finishing runner-up in Portugal last November when almost out of time.
Significantly, that was the scene of his first European Tour win four years earlier, so where better to wrap up his playing rights for 2023 than in the event where he secured his second win four years ago?
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