Max Homa, Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland have all come up short in their respective hat-trick bids of late, each defending a title they'd won twice before, and now Dean Burmester has a go – only his version would be even more impressive were he to complete it.
Burmester won the Joburg Open as an 11/1 favourite, then the South African Open at 7/1 last week (), and now goes into the Alfred Dunhill Championship at 6/1. Along with the Nedbank Challenge these are the biggest tournaments in South Africa, and he could be three-quarters of the way to the full house thanks to one trip back home.
Darts presenter Abigail Davies is joined by major winner, commentator and Sporting Life columnist Paul Nicholson as well as our very own resident darts expert Chris Hammer to guide you through each quarter Paddy Power World Championship draw with betting tips, insight, statistics and big-priced accas.
Oosthuizen was my headline selection last year and finished seventh, the second time in a row that he's done so around here. Also a three-time runner-up in the past, it's the one big South African title that has eluded him so far and, with strong ties to the event and its host, Johann Rupert, motivation isn't a concern.
I'll admit that it's challenging to accurately rate players like him, those who are past their best and now play on a circuit that lacks depth, doesn't necessarily incentivise absolute focus, and plays 54-hole sprints. The LIV Golf format will suit some more than others and I doubt it's ideal for a player whose patience made him such a fearsome major performer.
Certainly, the fact he's won at one-in-four on home soil since becoming a major champion only has so much worth as a guide to his chances, but it does help underline that his best form is the best in this field, and I simply don't think the market is giving him enough respect.
When last Oosthuizen was in action he lost a closely-fought game to Joaquin Niemann, subsequently victorious in Australia, and it's undeniably been a good couple of weeks for the Saudi-backed league. Oosthuizen might feed off Burmester's success and I have no issues putting him up after a break, given his phenomenal record in season-opening events down the years.
He's playing in Mauritius next week, too, and I'd be surprised and disappointed if he's not good enough to make a real impact in either or indeed both of these events. Leopard Creek is a great fit and anything bigger than 12/1 looks generous about such a class act, one whose decline has been steady rather than steep. At this level, he remains a massive runner.
Grace has recently welcomed the arrival of his second child and perhaps that affected his preparations for the Nedbank Challenge, where he was disappointing. Still, prior to that he'd matched Burmester's 67 in the final round of the LIV Golf season, and it was Grace who led that team as their standout performer in 2023.
A past champion here, he was in the mix throughout on his final start in the event before joining LIV, finishing third, and returned last year to finish fourth, the pick of the big names. His record at Leopard Creek since his 2012 emergence is outstanding and a second title will be well within reach if he can putt better than he did at Sun City.
Grace was suffering with one or two injury niggles a year ago, but this time around appears to be all set despite electing not to play the Joburg Open two weeks ago. That would have been preferable, but missing the slog around Blair Atholl might not be a bad thing and he too looks overpriced.
Taking two of the market leaders is not my preferred policy and it backfired here last year, but as Burmester, Niemann, Min Woo Lee and various big-name PGA Tour players have demonstrated since September, weaker fields often provide the best opportunities at the top of the betting.
Sullivan's success in South Africa, where he's twice a winner, can actually be traced back to third place on his Leopard Creek debut in 2012. That was his first DP World Tour top-10 and came about thanks to a stunning Saturday 64 which saw him make a big move up the leaderboard, Sunday's 69 then edging him into third behind runaway winner Schwartzel.
Having returned to finish 12th a year later, I'm surprised he's only been here once since, but needs must and having only just cracked the top 100 on the Race to Dubai in each of the last two seasons, no doubt he's back in South Africa hoping to build himself a platform to get back where he feels he belongs.
Third here in 2014 tells us Leopard Creek suits, anyway, and that came on his first start as a DP World Tour member, so at three-figure prices he made just enough appeal despite the obvious concern – the fact that this is just his second start back following another lengthy injury absence.
Frittelli also missed the cut by one last week, unable to recover from a slow start to the tournament. I really don't mind that one bit, especially as he'd shown plenty in Joburg before that, which in turn followed an eye-catching second round at the RSM Classic.
It seems he might be emerging from a prolonged slump and Leopard Creek is surely the place to test that theory, as he's played here five times, never quite cracking the places but never finishing worse than 25th, either.
This two-time DP World Tour winner had to drop down to the Challenge Tour as the result of a dramatic decline since beating Matt Fitzpatrick to the BMW International Open title in 2019, but fourth place in Cape Town back in February started things moving in the right direction again.
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