There's something villainous about the PGA Tour's way of ending the regular season, before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin. Not only are they siphoning more money off in the direction of the (largely absent) points leaders during a week where others are fighting for their futures, but this tournament also takes place at Sedgefield Country Club, an old-school throwback where finding fairways carries real worth, and where the biggest and most powerful players probably wouldn't turn up regardless of the schedule.
OK, Sedgefield is not unique. There are other courses, like Harbour Town, where similar rules apply, and there's even another Donald Ross layout on the schedule now thanks to the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But what's certain is the FedEx Cup standings would look very different if this was the norm rather than the exception, just as they would if top-level golf happened to find its home on the shores of Britain rather than the TPCs of America. Those who make their money here had better make it count.
The sub-plot to another million-dollar tournament is part of what makes the Wyndham so fascinating. Only the top 125 in FedEx Cup points at the end of this week will reach the Playoffs, with Rickie Fowler (130th), Tommy Fleetwood (136th) and Justin Rose (138th) among those on the outside looking in. Their careers aren't under threat, but Rose in particular will surely feel it's now or never when it comes to his Ryder Cup prospects.
It would be fair to say 2021 hasn't quite gone to plan for the Korean, who has so often found his good work undermined by one round, but such is his reliability across a certain group of courses, typically those which are technical, tree-lined and often with bermuda greens, that he is worth the benefit of the doubt at the odds.
Certainly I still consider him more likely to win pretty much any PGA Tour event than the likes of compatriot Si-Woo Kim, Brian Harman and Russell Henley, and with Patrick Reed having been unnecessarily busy in pursuit of a Ryder Cup place and Will Zalatoris neither an ideal fit nor definitively fit, Im stands out as the biggest threat to those at the top of the market.
MacIntyre gained Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour last week, but it really doesn't mean much if he doesn't capitalise here. Usually, STM means unlimited sponsor exemptions for the remainder of the season and therefore provides a platform for obtaining full membership, but this is the final event of the regular season, so the only thing it really bought MacIntyre was a final shot at getting his card.
To do so he's going to need something in the region of a top-10 finish, as the requirement is that he manages as many FedEx Cup points as whoever finishes 125th on the list. For that reason the target is fluid, but we know for sure he has a bit of work to do and should he fail, that would likely mean he goes to Korn Ferry Tour Finals, a run of three events which would give him a second chance to secure full status.
Johnson has his putting mojo back this season and ranks sixth on the PGA Tour, so the fact his approach play has caught the eye lately, ranking ninth and 10th the last twice, makes him an ideal candidate. Those who follow golf closely will know him as a sublime wedge player who hits fairways and he's very much a course fit.
He'll know it too, and we saw last year what damage he can do at Sedgefield as he shot 61-65 over the weekend to finish seventh. "I love it," he said at the time. "It's old-school, hit the fairway, stay below the hole, everything you would want out of a tournament."
Clearly, he doesn't get that too often but top-10s at the RSM and Honda Classic since demonstrate what he can do when faced with a shorter golf course and he's hit the ball well enough to compete on both starts since the US Open, only for his putter to run cold at precisely the wrong time.
We'll need that to change but he's putted well on three of his four appearances in the Wyndham, two of which have resulted in top-sevens, and his approach play last year was bettered by just one player in the field. A slow start was the only problem but it wasn't necessarily a surprise, as he arrived on two missed cuts and without a top-10 finish anywhere since 2018.
This time his form has much greater substance to it and at 50/1 and bigger, Johnson looks value to add his name to the list of veteran winners we've had this season.
CHEZ REAVIE is a similar player albeit without the putting, but while I'd be a little concerned he doesn't make enough, he's been better lately and at least looks an ideal candidate to have 14 or 15 birdie looks per round.
Fifth in driving accuracy for the year, Reavie's long-game has been improving for a while and he's certainly never had a problem off the tee here, ranking first, second, third and eighth for driving accuracy among his handful of tournament starts.
Reavie shot 64 on his first ever visit to Sedgefield and finished inside the top 10 in each of his first two, and while not as good lately, he hit the ball really well in 2019, and was generally struggling with new clubs and wider long-game issues when disappointing a year later.
Hughes has contended in each of the last two majors, unfortunate to some degree to be 15th in the US Open before four rounds in the sixties earned him sixth place in the Open Championship. Also 14th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, that's three top-15s in five starts and the others can be excused: no wonder he ran out of steam at the Travelers, and he shot 75 in the final round of the Olympics when, having started the day 17th, it was medal-or-bust.
There is a bit of a concern that he prefers tougher conditions, hence second place in the Honda, third at the Travelers and these strong major performances, but it was fairly low-scoring when he won the RSM Classic which does correlate nicely, and the same goes for a couple of near-misses in the Corales Puntacana.
Clearly not the player he was, Donald has at least got his approaches firing at times and has ranked inside the top five on two of his last six starts, with 16th in the Valspar and 25th in the Palmetto also very solid. For the season, despite struggling in other departments, he's 55th.
When finishing second here in 2016, Donald led the field in approaches despite being way down off the tee, and he ought to have won given he also putted badly. That club again has improved lately so while down the rankings for the season, note that he's gained strokes in five of his last six and was fourth at the Palmetto.
Results-wise he's managed 13th, 16th and 31st since May and as a multiple Harbour Town runner-up who has also been second at Sawgrass, this is precisely the sort of course on which he can still pop up and compete. To do so he'll need to avoid the foul ball off the tee, keep his wedges firing, and warm up the putter just a little more.
To my eye that doesn't look as big an ask as the odds suggest and unlike Haas, who hasn't yet burned his career money exemption, Donald needs to find something. He'll approach this in the right way, knowing that the course at least keeps the dream alive and that he's done enough to go to Korn Ferry Tour Finals if he so chooses.
Harold Varner almost made the staking plan owing to his form here, at Harbour Town and at Sawgrass, especially given that he's managed top-15s in each of his last two PGA Tour starts and is a North Carolina native like so many who've thrived in their home event. Along with Talor Gooch he'd be one of the best options if you'd like a more serious one than Donald, but this tournament is always prone to producing a massive shock and he has more positives than most at the prices.
Posted at 1300 BST on 10/08/21
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