In part two of his look ahead to 2021 in golf, Ben Coley picks out selections from 45/1 to 300/1 for the US Open and the Open Championship.
Golf betting tips: US Open
When it comes to debate, the US Open stands head and shoulders above the rest of the major championships. Conditions are either too easy, or too difficult - often during the same event, even on the same day. In 2020, the much-maligned USGA appeared to benefit from the safe bet of Winged Foot, although during the first round there were still cries that scoring was far too low. Come the end of the week, only one player broke par, and Justin Thomas applauded the USGA for its stewardship. It was a success.
And yet still there was controversy, this time over the champion, Bryson DeChambeau, and how he went about it. That's the US Open wherever it goes: there will be discussion over every detail, from scoring on day one to the champion at the end of day four.
In 2021, I expect a different kind of continuity. For a nomadic event, where we can be at Shinnecock one year and Pebble Beach the next, or go from Congressional to Olympic Club to Merion, the transition from Winged Foot to Torrey Pines might be the smoothest. Both are long. Both have extremely thick rough. And both have fairways which are among the hardest to hit in the United States.
Without going over old ground, any perception that hard-to-hit fairways favour those who are best at hitting fairways is flawed. Instead, these dynamics play into the hands of the likes of DeChambeau, who suddenly produced elite approach-play numbers when so often this had been a weakness. Why? Because when everyone is playing from the rough, he who is closest to the green, who is strongest, who has the steepest attack angle, is likely to come off best.
DeChambeau then could successfully defend his title, and 14/1 about him doing so does make some appeal. This is not the Masters, where the Champions Dinner and the rest of the pomp and ceremony puts new winners into a new and difficult situation from the moment they arrive. There is still added responsibility, a different kind of pressure, and the usual hurdles for a defending champion to clear, but doing so is easier. Brooks Koepka managed it, and DeChambeau could too.
But at this stage I would much rather chance MATTHEW WOLFF, who is a 45/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) shot with an obvious chance and could feasibly go off considerably shorter in the market.
The American didn't win in 2020, but he did everything else - including contending for both the PGA Championship (T4) and the US Open (2), his first two major starts. Only at Augusta did he stumble, but that's the event where experience matters most, and he still made a strong start before narrowly failing to progress to the weekend.
Clearly, he's already capable of contending for and winning majors, and a US Open similar to Winged Foot looks an obvious opportunity. Remember, Wolff was the 54-hole leader and fighting for favouritism with DeChambeau entering the final round back in September, and though no match for his compatriot still battled on well to finish runner-up.
That experience will not be lost on him, and was distinctly separate to his come-from-behind fourth in the PGA Championship. It gives him the platform to go on win next time an opportunity comes along, and I can think of few more suitable venues than Torrey Pines, where he was a rock-solid 21st on his debut in the Farmers Insurance Open back in January.
Last but by no means least, here's hoping we have an Open Championship at Royal St George's in July. This was the men's major we missed in 2020, the R&A cancelling it when it became clear that spectators would not be able to attend. It appears unlikely they'll be out in full force in Kent this summer, but presumably the show must go on regardless.
When it comes around, Shane Lowry will be defending having had the honour of being Champion Golfer of the Year for twice as long as anyone before him. The Irishman showed at Portrush that under pure links conditions, few are as comfortable, and despite modest form since it's no surprise that the 80/1 quoted by one firm recently has been taken.
This far out, the Open is the major where I'd be least inclined to consider those at the head of the market. Who's to say whether there might be potential for a big draw bias, or whether the preceding week's Scottish Open might suddenly look like a really sensible way to have prepared. In the months between now and then, there's so much information we can gather and at the best of times, it's the one event where the best players in the world are most vulnerable.
Tyrrell Hatton could go off a lot shorter than 50/1 if he continues to play as he has for the best part of 18 months now, and the 66/1 about Tony Finau won't be there if he does win again in the interim, but I'll keep things a little more speculative and begin with DANNY WILLETT.
I wouldn't say firms are taking a big chance in offering 100/1 (General) about an inconsistent player, but it won't take much in the way of form to see him go off shorter once we hear more about how he won the English Amateur Championship here at Sandwich once upon a time.
Willett has a strong Open record, too, with top-six finishes in 2015 and 2019, and I was interested to hear Robert Rock talk up how well he's swinging it at the end of 2020 where there were flashes of promise in Dubai.
There's no doubt his volatile form adds risk here but the fact he's hosting the British Masters in May guarantees him media coverage, and I really don't think it's going to take a great deal for his odds to tumble as we get closer to the off.
We know he's good enough to win majors after his heroics at Augusta in 2016, and since then he's saved his best for Rolex Series events in Dubai and England. That big-time ability is worthy of respect and nobody should be surprised if he does add another major championship to what's a classy CV.
If and when it does come my money would be on the Open, and he's worth a speculative bet.
RYAN PALMER is hardly the most inspiring selection with which to round things off, but at 300/1 with BetVictor and 250/1 generally, the Texan has to be added to the staking plan.
There's no denying the fact that Americans have defied the expectations of those who say they can't play links golf. That's true everywhere, but their record at Royal St George's is particularly eye-catching with so many threatening Darren Clarke here in 2011, nine years after Ben Curtis was a shock winner.
Curtis went on to win a Texas Open in really difficult, breezy conditions, and we had a Texan winner of the Open back in 2017 when Jordan Spieth triumphed. It's fanciful to suggest Palmer could follow suit, but he played some of the best golf of his life in 2020, including when second under tough conditions at Muirfield Village, and looks overpriced on that basis.
Throw in the fact that he's a strong wind player with a good Open record, and there's actually much to like. Palmer was 30th here in 2011, months after he'd lost a play-off in a Texas Open played in an absolutely gale; remarkably, he went on to finish 30th again in both 2015 and 2016 Opens, and he is precisely the type to pop up and place if conditions play into his hands.
Having ended 2020 with fourth place behind three of the world's best players in the ZOZO Championship, he's up to 30th in the world - close to his career high - and yet he's listed alongside Scott Piercy (142nd, unlikely to qualify, similar age, never made an Open cut) and various others who aren't in the field and aren't about to alter that.
Palmer is by no means a likely Open winner, but his form in 2020 and past efforts in the UK entitle him to be closer to 100/1 than the 300s we can take, with plenty of 250/1 going, too. He's been completely overlooked and such is the value in the prices quoted that I'm compelled to stick to a full point each-way.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 23/12/20
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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