Not for the first time in his career, Sergio Garcia could do with a hug. Asked how he felt about his game entering the US Open, the Spaniard simply uttered the word 'horrible'. Encouraged to elaborate, he told reporters that he didn't know where the ball was going, which is somewhat troubling for one of the finest ball-strikers of his generation.
Garcia went on to finish 52nd, gently easing his way down the leaderboard. At least he made the cut, which he'd failed to do in his previous seven majors, and has since failed to do in the calmer waters of the BMW International Open at a course he enjoys. Make no mistake, Garcia isn't at his best. Since winning the Masters, these slumps have become alarmingly common and harder to escape.
Yet if there's one place on earth at which the 39-year-old can arrive and turn things around in a few holes, it is Valderrama, which keeps its place on the European Tour schedule for the fourth year in succession. This is Garcia's golfing oasis, a course at which he has 13 top-10 finishes in 14 tries and three victories in his last four, including last year when he escaped the field over just 54 holes.
To others, Valderrama's embrace is suffocating. To Garcia, it is warm and welcoming, capable of conjuring from him one of those fluid, effortless performances which have punctuated a 20-year career. When he's happy, healthy and loved, Garcia is in a completely different league to all bar one, maybe two players in this field. Even in this latest existential funk, he's bloody well tempting at 13/2.
Those one or two players who can hold a candle to the tournament host are youngsters with vastly different builds and vastly different games.
Jon Rahm is a combustible bully of a golfer who started off winning at the longest course on the PGA Tour and has since blasted his way to various victories the world over. The lengthening list of titles includes one in Spain, but not here, and Valderrama is the one course on earth which most undermines what he's good at.
Given that Rahm can get a little, shall we say, frustrated, this nudge-and-grind layout, the European Tour's spiritual home which offers a throwback to the days of loose-fitting trousers and straight-hitting shorties, I can't have him on my mind at all. It's no exaggeration to say he'd be clear favourite over Garcia at any other venue in the world of professional golf, but the layers aren't wrong: here, he's second best at best.
Then we have Matt Fitzpatrick, half the mass of Rahm and twice as suited to the course. The 24-year-old should've won in Germany on Sunday, where nobody in the field hit more greens, and it won't surprise anyone if he gains quick compensation. For a quiet type, Fitzpatrick has made no secret of his frustration at the wide-open courses which account for most of the schedule. He'll know this is a chance not to be missed.
At 10/1, Fitzpatrick is not much easier to get away from than Garcia. This is a golf course which has tended to unearth a champion of high calibre and his skill set is perfect for it. Should the putter warm up just a degree or two and he avoid the sort of stumbling start which probably cost him in Hong Kong last November, we could well be in for title number six.
