Free betting tips: Ben Coley's Alfred Dunhill Links preview

Rory McIlroy is a worthy and warm favourite for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, his final opportunity to end a frustrating season on a high note.

The four-time major champion provided a timely reminder of his effortless brilliance in chasing home the excellent Paul Dunne last week, despite playing modest golf for the first 36 holes and missing some chances over the final 18, and if building on that will take all the beating.

McIlroy has been looking forward to playing alongside his dad in this unique pro-am event and, having twice been runner-up before, much may depend on whether he can get through a difficult day at Carnoustie unscathed.

And there's the rub. Last week's effort came courtesy of the sort of soft, relatively benign conditions under which he thrives and he may not get that courtesy here. Links golf is notoriously unpredictable, as McIlroy found out at St Andrews in the 2010 Open, and with a 1000/1 winner just three years ago it must make sense to look beyond the favourite.

While attracting a strong field and offering a huge purse, one thing which is evident about the Dunhill Links is that it is most certainly not for everyone. Many of those in attendance simply can't afford to turn down the opportunity or say no to a sponsor, yet time and again fail to get competitive, put off their stride by six hours alongside Shane Warne. They have my every sympathy.

Others, however, absolutely love it and that's certainly the case with some of the key dangers to Rory. Tommy Fleetwood, for instance, has three top-fives in six attempts and will be a huge factor if returning to his summer peak following the birth of his first child, while Shane Lowry must also fancy his chances having struck the ball beautifully of late and is surely the man most likely to play well.

I wanted to put up Lowry, especially with bad weather forecast, but I can't at 20/1. For all his reputation as an elite player, for all the talent which runs through a pair of truly magic hands, he does have just three European Tour wins to his name, one of which came as an amateur way back in 2009 and another in the United States.

In essence he's won one of these rank-and-file events as a professional and when you compare that to Matt Fitzpatrick, a four-time winner over the last two years, it's not right that Lowry should find himself shorter in the market.

Granted, it's also a fair while since Martin Kaymer took a title of any description but this two-time major winner might just return to the winners' enclosure in an event he dearly loves.

The affable German was runner-up here in 2008 and won it on his next visit in 2010, and in actual fact there's been some form of encouragement in all bar one of his nine appearances in the Dunhill Links.

Last year, he finished sixth after a slow start at Carnoustie on the back of a disappointing Ryder Cup and, as so often has been the case, that was a performance powered by a return to his ball-striking best.