It's very reasonable to ask questions of PATRICK CANTLAY's record in majors, but those questions help to prop up the prices attached to the name of one of the sport's very best players – and I think he'll go close to winning at least one of them this year.
Since golf returned in the summer of 2020, Cantlay has established himself as arguably the leading PGA Tour player. In total he's played in 37 what you'd call standard PGA Tour events (i.e. non-majors, WGCs and The PLAYERS) and he's won six of them, with 14 further top-10 finishes to his name.
FedEx Cup champion in 2021 after fending off Jon Rahm, Cantlay is now firmly established inside the world's top five. Fourth at the time of writing, he's set to climb to third very soon and that's where he sits in the strokes-gained world rating now offered by the Official World Golf Ranking website and used to calculate points distribution.
All of this is to say that there are only three players I would have clearly in front of him currently: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. They're all 4/1 or shorter to win at least one major this year (McIlroy is 5/2) and I think it's a little absurd that Cantlay sits 14th in the market with bet365, who rate Cam Young and Matt Fitzpatrick among those more likely.
This is all because Young and Fitzpatrick contended for majors in 2022, whereas Cantlay did that only briefly at St Andrews. However, we really must remind ourselves that there are four of these events and they come in a three-month period. Drawing firm conclusions about players and their perceived suitability to them is fraught with danger, for all that it's fair to say Cantlay has been underwhelming.
Remember, before the 2022 PGA Championship, Justin Thomas had gone five years since his sole major, and so often failed to deliver what many had expected. Fitzpatrick hadn't had a sniff of winning a major before this year, and then he contended for one, and won the next. Viktor Hovland hadn't yet managed a top 10 before playing in the final group at St Andrews, where Cam Smith was the latest first-time winner.
Cantlay has hit the front on Masters Sunday, and I like the fact that he ended this year's set back on the front foot, with 14th in the US Open and eighth at St Andrews. They set him up perfectly for 2023 and with the US Open heading to LA Country Club, 30 miles from his childhood home, this could be the year that one of the game's best players put everything together.
Of course, we could just back him for the US Open at 22/1 generally and 25s in a place, or for all four majors individually at around the 25/1 mark. That way, there's potential to collect more than once and there were at least four players who threatened to win twice in 2022, even if one of them, Will Zalatoris, ended up with none.
But my view is that 7/1 with bet365 and the 6/1 with Sky Bet are more than sufficient to keep things simple, as is the general 11/2, while a smaller play on four top-20 finishes also appeals with ties thrown in for free.
The latter market also has Tony Finau listed at 25/1 with bet365 and 20/1 with BoyleSports. His top-20 strike-rate in majors currently stands at 50% and he's just behind Cantlay in the pecking order when it comes to potential first-time winners in 2023. However, as explained below, there's one major in particular I like him for.
You know the drill by now: wait until April, and you'll be able to take 10 or 12 places on each-way bets for the Masters, a tournament with a relatively small pool of potential champions. Typically it goes somewhat to the form book, so what sense is there in getting involved without these things in our favour?
There's one caveat to all of this, and it's that by betting now, punters have the chance to beat the market significantly. That was possible a year ago, with a bang in-form but as yet winless Scottie Scheffler priced at around the 40/1 mark. Four months and three victories later, he arrived at Augusta as one of the favourites and duly obliged.
If there's a Scheffler equivalent then it's Cameron Young, who now carries the mantle of the sport's best maiden and, like Scheffler before him, has contended for majors already. He even signed off in the mix for the Hero World Challenge, just as Scheffler had, and Viktor Hovland won both renewals for good measure. Might there be some kind of history repeated?
The trouble is that where Scheffler had positive Augusta experience to call upon, having played well in both 2020 and 2021 editions of the Masters, Young shot 77-77 on his debut there in April. And while a fine talent, do I envisage Young taking the world by storm and arriving at this year's tournament as the sport's best player? To be frank, no I don't.
He's got a fine record at the Ross-designed Sedgefield, where Stenson has subsequently won, and having been runner-up three times in his last 10 starts looks the kind of player who's laid the foundations for a big 2023.
Compatriot Yang won his major in this and it's generally a good one for first-time winners, with Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Morikawa all having made their breakthroughs in it. Im is definitely good enough to join that list.
I did consider him to win any of the four at 18/1, bet365 again pricing a borderline elite golfer among inferior ones, but there's no denying a west coast US Open isn't ideal. For that reason I'll stick to the US PGA, with the Masters the other obvious opportunity given a pair of top-10s at Augusta.
Long off the tee and a fabulous ball-striker who is at his best under tough conditions, despite his sole PGA Tour win having come in a shootout, Wise was one of the best players who didn't manage a victory in 2022, and with the broom putter working wonders, he should keep on climbing the rankings.
Finau also boasts a very good Open record, with a worst of 28th from six tries. Given the variables this championship brings, that tells you he not only relishes the challenge, but he has the shots required to conquer a variety of courses, from St Andrews over to Troon and across the sea to Portrush.
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