Wolves entertain Leeds at Molineux on a Friday night. And that’s the key word - entertain.
Leeds have been thrilling, relentless and a breath of fresh air this season. Last time out against Arsenal, they refused to park the bus against a traditional 'big-six' side and played an open and expansive game.
At first, it seemed tactically naïve. They went 4-0 down in the 47th minute. But then a curious thing happened. Pascal Struijk rose highest to head home a corner before Leeds pulled another one back through Helder Costa.
For 15 brief minutes every Leeds fan thought they’d come back and earn a famous 4-4 draw. Every neutral wanted them to.
It didn’t happen. Arsenal closed out the game, one which but for two Leeds chances, they’d have been comfortable winners.
But that’s Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds. Uncompromising in their approach. It’s led to thrashings against Leicester and Man Utd, but big wins against Newcastle and West Brom. Just four sides have scored more goals than Leeds in the league, only one side has conceded more.
Differing styles, but a similar substance.
It’s a classic case of bet with your head not with your heart. Away from home and coming off the back of a defeat which should’ve been by four clear goals, Leeds are under-valued at 2/1 to win outright.
The problem is so many punters take a chance on them. After all, who wants to back the team playing boring football?
With the outrights so skewed and total goals bets so unpredictable in this match-up, I’d urge you to play it safe with some stats bets.
Mark O'Haire got it spot on last week, correctly calling Patrick Bamford to have one header on target at 9/4.
That price has hardly dropped at 2/1 despite Arsenal’s back four being superior to Wolves’ on paper.
Only Harry Kane (3.70) has averaged more attempts at goal than Bamford (3.57) this season. Almost half of those efforts have arrived with his head, while Leeds deliver the division’s fourth-most crosses.
It's good enough for me, in fact I’m also going to throw my loose change at the forward getting multiple headers on target at 18/1 with Sky Bet.
If you must go for an outright, pick a draw at 12/5. Like I said, these two teams may differ in style, but when it comes to substance, there's a reason only two points separate them in the table.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Leeds
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT 18/02/21
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