Wales leave the pitch after defeat to Denmark
Wales leave the pitch after defeat to Denmark

Wales out of Euro 2020: Defensive issues evident in 4-0 defeat to Denmark


Wales' Euro 2020 campaign was ended in convincing fashion by Denmark, who ran out 4-0 winners in their round of 16 meeting in Amsterdam.

Despite a positive opening ten minutes, from there it was a case of Danish domination as Rob Page's men had no reply to the strength of Denmark's attack, ensuring there will be no repeat of their 2016 semi-final heroics.

While they did finish runners-up to Italy in Group A, Wales' defensive issues were present throughout the tournament and always likely to hold them back, ultimately costing them with Denmark hitting four unanswered goals.

For Denmark's part, they've demonstrated just why they were one of the tournament dark horses and their three points gained in the group stage didn't necessarily reflect their performances. Scoring four goals in back-to-back games is a demonstration of what they can do.

Wales will go home with a number of positives and negatives to assess. Following their round of 16 exit, Tom Carnduff looks at the major talking points before assessing Denmark's prospects from here.


The signs were there

To go through the group stage having only conceded two goals was in some ways a major positive of the Wales campaign - only Belgium, Spain, England and Group A rivals Italy conceded fewer.

The issue was that there was a significant disparity between their actual and Expected Goals Against (xGA) figures. No side remaining in the tournament at the round of 16 stage had a higher xGA figure than Page's side (6.5). All might have looked rosey, but beneath the surface this was a Wales defence waiting to be cracked open.

Switzerland's Expected Goals (xG) figure of 2.60 in the 1-1 draw in Wales' first game could have determined their fate at that early stage of the competition. The point in that game proved crucial for their chances of progressing - it's likely that the win against Turkey may not have been enough otherwise.

Even Turkey posted 1.65 xG in that game while a second-string Italy side were comfortable with 2.26 xG in the 1-0 victory in Rome. If the opposition had managed to live up to those expected tallies, Wales' negative goal difference would have denied them a spot in the knockouts.

It wasn't just an issue in the group stage though with their shaky defence on display in defeat to Denmark. Four goals came from an xG figure of 3.26 - they were well and truly beaten in the end, and the signs had been there from the beginning.

The attack played its part

While their defence had issues, at the other end of the pitch Wales' forwards were doing their bit in an attacking output that deserved more than it got.

Wales' three group-stage goals came from 5.0 xG. They posted better attacking figures than Belgium, England and France and that is one positive they can focus on during their tournament de-brief. It's also a building point for the future.

Nobody expected Wales to go far - and the fact they featured in the round of 16 should be viewed as a major positive - so to have an attack as strong as they did will give them something to look to build on and complement in upcoming tournaments.

Strong defences win trophies - it is why we are seeing some of the more fancied nations adopting that approach. For Wales though, they could create an identity which focuses on this attacking football - it's a system that can cause the better teams problems.

We would perhaps have expected the xGA figures prior to the tournament getting under way, but not Wales' xG. If they can work on limiting both the number and the quality of chances they concede, Wales have every chance of becoming a tournament regular in future with some of the attacking talent available.


What next for Wales?

prior to the tournament beginning and it's easy to see why. A solid defence combined with an influential attack will cause teams problems - we can't disregard their price to reach the final at this stage.


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