The Hammers have lost just one of their last 10 league games (v Liverpool), winning six, and those results are reflected in their performances, which means that, if they continue to perform in the same manner, West Ham will stick around in the top six.
Their season averages of 1.61 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.28 expected goals against (xGA) are impressive, and are also better than those put up by Tottenham (1.49, 1.44).
You are getting the picture then, that the data makes the Hammers the better of the two teams heading into this clash, and it is hard to disagree.
As Steven Railston discussed in his article this week, Jose Mourinho teams tend to experience a period of xG overperformance before regression kicks in, and that is what we are starting to see from Spurs.
They have won just three of 12 in the league, with two of those wins coming against the bottom two, and that run leaves them ninth heading into this game.
Results over that time have been fully deserved, with their xG process suggesting they have been performing like a bottom half team (1.20 xGF, 1.53 xGA per game) – and the eye test backs that assumption up.
Score Prediction: West Ham 2-1 Tottenham ( or tweet
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