West Brom v Leicester betting tips: Free Premier League tips, preview, prediction, stats & latest odds

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West Brom v Leicester

  • Sunday 2pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
  • Match Odds:

The BTTS draw at 15/4 is tempting, but I'd shy away from that given Leicester's scoring troubles in the closing stages of last season and the three 0-0 stalemates the Baggies and their fans endured in their final 10 fixtures.

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I tipped West Brom to finish bottom of the table in our ante-post relegation preview, based on their long-standing poor form and lack of squad strengthening. Since then, they crucially managed to prize Grady Diangana out of West Ham.

His departure led to public criticism of the club from Hammers captain Mark Noble, which speaks volumes for both what's going on at the London Stadium right now and just how good a player the England Under-21 international is.

Albion's quest for survival will depend largely on how Diangana and another loanee-turned-permanent acquisition, Matheus Pereira, perform this season.

West Brom's drop in form while Diangana was injured last season was stark: two points per game with him, 1.47 without. His 15-game absence very nearly cost them promotion. Both he and Pereira are capable of individual brilliance, and when one is missing it allows the opposition to dedicate further numbers in an effort to restrict the other's impact.

While each has their own strengths, what they have in common is loving to shoot - on average Diangana attempted 2.3 per 90 minutes last season, with Pereira on exactly three.

and while those odds are tempting to back with small stakes,

He really is someone who has loved a potshot over a consistent period of time.

Across Pereira's whole career - 100 appearances in spells with Nurnberg, Chaves, Sporting and West Brom - his shots per game drops very slightly to 2.7, but the outside the area percentage jumps to 59%.

If only there was a packed Hawthorns screaming "shoooot" to bay him on on our behalf.

Maybe he'll hear us all through the TV.

Score prediction: West Brom 1-1 Leicester ()

Best bets:

Opta Stats

  • West Bromwich Albion have lost their last four Premier League home games against Leicester City – their longest ever losing streak at home to the Foxes.
  • Leicester City have never won five consecutive away Premier League games against a single opponent, with their four straight wins versus West Brom their joint-best such streak in the competition (also vs Newcastle in January 2020).
  • The home side has never won in eight previous Premier League meetings between West Bromwich Albion and Leicester (D2 L6) – only Bournemouth v Watford (10) has been played more in the competition without the home side ever winning.
  • West Brom and Leicester City have both lost six times on the opening weekend of a Premier League season, although the Baggies have won their last two such matches and the Foxes are winless in four (D1 L3).
  • West Brom have won their opening league match of the season in three of the last four campaigns (L1), having won just twice in their previous 18 (D6 L10).
  • Leicester have won their opening Premier League match of the season in just one of their last 11 attempts (D5 L5), though that win came in their title-winning season in 2015-16, (4-2 against Sunderland).
  • After collecting 24 points in an eight-game winning run between October and December 2019, Leicester won the same number of points in their final 22 Premier League matches of the 2019-20 season (W6 D6 L10).
  • Leicester have faced newly-promoted sides on the opening day in the top-flight on six previous occasions and won none of those (D3 L3), losing most recently in 2016-17 as reigning champions against Hull City.
  • West Brom’s Matheus Pereira assisted 16 league goals in 2019-20, second only to Kevin De Bruyne (20) in England’s top four tiers. The only previous Brazilian to appear for the Baggies in the Premier League was Sandro in 2016 (12 appearances).
  • Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored in all four of his away Premier League appearances against West Bromwich Albion – the only player in Premier League history to play more away matches against an opponent and score in each match is Ruud van Nistelrooy at Newcastle (scored in all five).

Odds correct as of 1400 BST on 11/09/20

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