World Cup betting tips: Wednesday's Group F preview including Mexico v Sweden

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Scenario: Another complicated group where even bottom side South Korea could still go through. Mexico need only a draw against Sweden while a win would see them top the group with maximum points. Germany need to at least match Sweden's result. Draws in both games would see qualification determined by goals scored. Identical records would then see qualification decided by the better result when the teams met, which would see Germany go through courtesy of their 2-1 win.

Predictions:

  • South Korea 1-3 Germany
  • Mexico 2-1 Sweden

Best Bet:

Opta Stats

  • The most recent World Cup meeting between South Korea and Germany was at the Koreans’ home World Cup in 2002, with the hosts losing 1-0 in the semi-finals.
  • Germany have won all five of their World Cup games against Asian opponents, scoring 19 goals in total and keeping clean sheets in each of their last three.
  • South Korea have lost their last four World Cup matches in a row, their joint-worst run – they also lost four in a row between 1986 and 1990.
  • Germany’s victory over Sweden was their first at the World Cup when conceding first since 1998, a 2-1 win over Mexico.
  • Son Heung-Min attempted eight shots in South Korea’s defeat to Mexico – three more than South Korea managed in their opening match against Sweden (five shots).
  • Germany have won 15 of their last 17 competitive matches (D1 L1) since losing 2-0 to France at Euro 2016.
  • South Korea have conceded a penalty goal in each of their last two World Cup matches – they had conceded just one goal via a penalty in their previous 29 World Cup games combined.
  • Toni Kroos’ goal against Sweden was the latest goal scored by Germany in normal time at the World Cup (94:42) – Kroos has been involved in five goals in his last five World Cup games (3 goals, 2 assists).

Mexico v Sweden (1500 BST - BBC Two)

Best Bet:

Opta Stats

  • Mexico and Sweden have faced each other on nine occasions but only once at a World Cup, Sweden winning 3-0 in their opening group stage match in 1958.
  • Mexico have never won three consecutive matches at the World Cup and could become the first CONCACAF team to achieve this feat in World Cup history.
  • Sweden’s defeat to Germany was their first in the group stage of the World Cup since 1990, when they lost 2-1 to Costa Rica.
  • Mexico have lost just two of their last 19 World Cup group stage matches (W10 D7).
  • Sweden have won only four of their last 13 World Cup games when they’ve scored first (D5 L4).
  • Javier Hernandez’s goal in Mexico’s 2-0 win over South Korea was his fourth at the World Cup – only Luis Hernandez has scored as many for Mexico in World Cup history (also four).
  • Sweden’s Ola Toivonen didn’t score in 23 matches for Toulouse in Ligue 1 in the 2017-18, failing with all 19 of his shots – at the 2018 World Cup, Toivonen has scored one goal from just two shots.
  • Sweden registered just 24% possession in their 2-1 defeat to Germany, their lowest figure in a World Cup match since 1966.
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Preview posted at 1400 BST on 26/06/18

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