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Everyone loves a local derby, especially those on TV to kick off a feast of football on Sunday.
Aston Villa welcome Birmingham with the hosts starting to get going under Dean Smith. They've won their last two, which includes an impressive 3-0 victory away at Derby last time out.
A defeat to the Rams ended the Blues' incredible 11-game unbeaten run, and they followed that up with a 3-3 draw against Hull despite being 2-0 up at half-time.
I like the look of a Villa win here. Smith's men are unbeaten in their last three at home, alongside a seven-game run without defeat in this derby at their own stadium. Goals from Clinton Morrison and David Dunn helped Birmingham wrap up their last Villa Park victory - but that was all the way back in December 2004.
Conor Hourihane is a player who has demonstrated that he can make an impact in this Villa team and I'm keen to back him to strike in what is a massive game for both sides.
At a general price of 3/1, it's clear that Hourihane is fancied to be in the mix for a goal, but going for him to strike from outside the area boosts it to 11/1 and the stats back up a goal from distance.
The midfielder is second for shots on goal in this Aston Villa side, with his 33 higher than any of the club's strikers. The most interesting thing here though is that 29 of those attempts have come from outside of the box.
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