The highlight of Tuesday's action in the Champions League as Atletico Madrid welcome Bayern. A strong home side taking on a team with a great away record; a contest that would have had real potential to go either way.
I would be all over Bayern being priced at 12/5 for victory in any game, but I'm glad I waited for Hansi Flick's press conference before committing to a result here. They will not be at full strength.
The reason for Atletico's near even money price is clear. You have to go back to December 2019 for the last time they lost at home, that was a 1-0 defeat thanks to a Lionel Messi goal for Barcelona. They are a strong side in familiar surroundings but Bayern's record on the road is a big positive.
However, this isn't a usual game for Bayern and they will be resting key players for this contest. Flick has confirmed that Robert Lewandowski, Manuel Neuer, Leon Goretzka and Corentin Tolisso will all remain in Germany as they are rested. Combine that with injuries and it makes it a tough task for the current champions.
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Manchester City got the job done last week as they secured progression to the knockout stages with victory over Olympiacos. Now, the focus is on reaching the next round as winners of Group C and they can do just that by avoiding defeat here.
Porto are all-but-through given their current six-point gap to third and their focus will also be on top spot. City are odds-on here, but Porto's recent form means that it may not be as straightforward as they would have hoped.
The one positive for City is that 5-0 hammering of Burnley on Saturday. It's become a tradition to beat the Clarets so convincingly, but what we did see was a City side that clicked and really showed the signs of the peak Pep Guardiola era - that is something that has been missing so far.
Over 2.5 goals being at 8/11 shows how goals are fancied in this contest and it's worth backing City to grab a couple of those. They have hit ten across their four European games so far and that includes three when these two met at the Etihad last month.
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Liverpool's defeat to Atalanta last time out has certainly made this an interesting contest. The remaining fixtures should mean that the Reds progress to the knockout stages, but their spot at the top is under threat with both Ajax and Atalanta contenders.
Jurgen Klopp's side won 1-0 in their trip to Amsterdam but the injury problem has worsened since then. It's also worth noting that Ajax's xG in that contest was 1.35; they can consider themselves lucky that the hosts didn't find a way through the Liverpool back line.
That victory for Atalanta gives more belief to the idea that Ajax can come and get something here. Players are missing for the hosts and James Milner may be the latest name on an increasingly growing list of those absent for the current English champions.
The options are becoming increasingly limited and Ajax come into the contest in form. Since that 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, they have won seven of their eight games with the other being a 2-2 draw at Atalanta. It is also worth mentioning they beat Venlo 13-0 in the league just days after losing to Klopp's men.
Their last four games have seen them scoring at least three in each while conceding just once across that period. Liverpool's front line will be strong but so will Ajax's, and the Reds defence will have a tough task of keeping out the visitors.
The fact remains that Liverpool should have lost to Brighton last time out. They were wasteful with their opportunities, posted an xG of 2.22 to Liverpool's 0.32, but needed a 93rd minute penalty given by VAR to grab a point in the contest.
If you haven't seen it already, Klopp's interview with BT Sport after the game is incredible viewing. The argument between him and Des Kelly about the broadcasters influence on fixtures showed that perhaps the cracks are more than appearing in Liverpool's previously impenetrable armour.
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Mikey Mumford
The Bavarians will leave Robert Lewandowski at home for their trip to Madrid, news that will encourage Diego Simeone as he plots a three-point haul and a strengthening of Atleti’s grip on the runners-up spot in Group A.
While Atleti may have struggled for goals in the Champions League this term, they clearly haven’t lacked in endeavour racking up 42 corners in their first four fixtures. Their recent double-header with Lokomotiv Moscow saw ten and 16 corners respectively, they posted nine at home to Salzburg and seven at the Allianz Arena in Gameweek 1.
With the attacking intent of Kieran Trippier and Renan Lodi, Madrid look well placed to deliver another plethora of flag-kicks against a Bayern side already looking forward to finding out their Last 16 opponents.
Inter travel to Monchengladbach bottom of Group B and require a win to keep alive their faint hopes of qualification. If that proves beyond Antonio Conte’s men, a one-game shootout with Shakhtar Donetsk may decide their Europa League fate, a trophy they came almighty close to lifting last season.
Inter have collected at least 20 booking points (30, 20, 30 & 55 pts) in their four fixtures so far and tempers flared in the first half at the San Siro last time when Arturo Vidal saw red against Real Madrid. They covered the ‘30+ Booking Points’ line in the group opener against the Germans and this tie takes on even greater significance for both.
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Odds correct at 1330 GMT (30/11/20)
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