However, there’s another bet which I like even more and that’s Stefan Savic to be booked at any time at a tasty 7/2.
The Montenegrin defender was been a regular in the referee’s notebook over the past 18 months, receiving 12 yellows last season.
He’s currently on a run of four in his last seven for his club, one which becomes five in nine if you throw in international appearances.
With the likes of Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata likely to be running at him throughout this one, there’s every chance he’s seen tugging someone down in trademark fashion at some point - or least a better chance than 7/2 suggests.
The only issue is he's not guaranteed to start. Savic has played in recent games but Simeone has had a tendency to rotate his defenders to suit the occasion this season.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Atletico
Officially, United are yet to book their place in the last 16 but they will need to lose by seven goals here if they are to miss out.
That isn’t going to happen and instead they will be targeting top spot – a draw here will earn them that.
CSKA have certainly been competitive in this group and they are effectively battling it out with Basel to go through alongside United.
They are going to need to better Basel’s result away to Benfica though which means defeat here is no good to them.
Perhaps they will try to play out a goalless draw but the likelihood is United will score at some point and that will force CSKA out.
That conclusion is based on the reverse fixture, a game United utterly dominated, sweeping aside their opponents in ruthless fashion.
Romelu Lukaku ran the Russians’ backline all over the place that night, scoring twice, and this could well represent a good chance for him to restore some confidence ahead of Sunday’s Manchester derby.