Southampton v Arsenal (1800, Sky Sports)

Match Odds:

I can't be the only one who watched David Luiz at Man City and confidently predicted that was his Arsenal farewell - and yet the club have just handed him a new contract. You have to ask yourself what state a club is in that is willing to keep a liability like him on in what is your biggest area for concern.

You feel for Mikel Arteta as the club's bosses have never really backed managers to the hilt, so just what they'll do now their lucrative matchday income has vanished is anyone's guess. Throw in goalkeeper Bernd Leno, who was their best player in their opening two defeats, being out injured and you have a recipe for disaster.

So maybe a trip to Southampton is the antidote - yet here we are with Arsenal slight underdogs at the team who hold the worst home record in the division (W4 D2 L9). I was staggered to see again that the Gunners had won just twice away from the Emirates this season, twice!

Saints have actually won two more games than draw specialists Arsenal, and Ralph Hasenhuttl's men can draw level on points with Thursday's visitors with a win. The fact that I'll be backing them to do just that, after also backing Arsenal to finish in the bottom half of the table (11/4 at time of writing) shows how much trouble this side is in.

Listen, Arsenal aren't without talent, in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang they have who I think is one of the best strikers in the league, but he must be wondering just when he can get out of this mess the way it's going.

Danny Ings is happily getting the recognition he deserves after banging in 16 goals this season, he's now 10/1 for the Golden Boot and Evens to score against Arsenal - given his form and the Gunners defence you would not be surprised at all.

It's all set up for a rare home win that will get Southampton to that magical 40-point mark.

Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Arsenal

Best bet:

Southampton v Arsenal Opta stats

• Southampton have won three of their last five Premier League home games against Arsenal (D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 12 against them at the Dell/St Mary’s (W2 D5 L5).
• Southampton are yet to draw a Premier League game in 2020, with Saints winning five and losing five of their 10 matches. Southampton have kept a clean sheet in four of those five victories, while they’ve conceded at least twice in four of the five defeats.
• Having been on an 11-game unbeaten run away from home in all competitions since the start of December, Arsenal have lost each of their last two on the road.
• Arsenal have lost 10 points from winning positions in their 12 Premier League games under Mikel Arteta – as many as they’d lost in their previous 36 combined under Fredrik Ljungberg and Unai Emery.
• Southampton’s leading goalscorer this season Danny Ings has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Arsenal. The striker has only found the net more often against Aston Villa and Everton (4 each) in the competition.
• Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 49 Premier League goals, and a goal here will see him become the sixth fastest player to reach 50 in the competition (78 games). However, he’s failed to score in any of his last three appearances, with his goalless run standing at 314 minutes (10 shots attempted).

Burnley v Watford (1800, Sky Sports and Pick)

Match Odds:

It's tough to get motivated just to write about this one, let alone play in it, and it's the draw that you immediately look at with two teams hard to figure out in a situation that promotes quite careful, low intensity football, from what we've seen so far.

As we find out more about these games, and as we get nearer the end of the season, you'd think desperation would normally take hold - whoever has that extra desire would come out on top, and that would certainly point you in Watford's direction given their relegation worries. Burnley will, though, have a point to prove after that flyover at Man City embarrassed the entire club.

The fact the Hornets are favourites despite winning just two away games all season shows what strange times we live in - in their favour are Sean Dyche's selection problems with a host of out-of-contract players not being selected, and the fact Watford have had two days extra to prepare.