Brighton v Burnley

• 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Box Office
• Match odds:

Brighton really are the Premier League's nearly men, promising so much but delivering so little.

Though five top-flight games without a win, it could easily be argued that Albion did enough for victory in all five - or as a bare minimum three. But the facts of the matter are this: seven matches played, one win, five points.

They suffer from the familiar problem of missing chances and failing to keep clean sheets; a good recipe for losing games.

With bottom-of-the-table Burnley the visitors on Friday evening, a side yet to win this season, we're faced with a dilemma when it comes to having an outright bet. Do we back Brighton to finally turn their performances into points, or at odds-on for victory is their lack of reliability too much of a red flag? I favour the latter.

I expect this one to be tight and will play those odds instead, although if you really pressed me I'm leaning towards the visitors.

Three of the Clarets' past five league games have seen under 2.5 goals, and only a late Gareth Bale winner for Spurs prevented the Seagulls from securing a third straight 1-1 draw.

Both were up there in last season's under 2.5 goals table, with Brighton (55%) fifth and Burnley (53%) just a place behind. Taking Bet Victor's 10/11 price with a sizeable stake feels like a smart play.