There is every chance that will happen again this weekend, unless City can snap out of it; can up the tempo after a weary 2020.
For the 2-0 win in March, United used a 3-4-1-2 against City, the same system that saw them fall flat against RB Leipzig (more on that later) but a formation that generally neutralises Guardiola’s attacks.
Solskjaer’s side retreated into their own half, conceding as much as 70% possession to the opposition, with the back five and midfield three compressing space between the lines and shuffling from side to side – minimising space in behind or in front of the defence.
This meant Kevin de Bruyne was either crowded out altogether or forced into harmless wide areas, while the City midfield was reduced to tame, sideways passing. Fred and Scott McTominay played particularly crucial roles in man-marking the City midfielders Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan, preventing them from making purposeful forward passes.
Without the ability to create quick triangles City were sluggish, which in turn made them vulnerable to getting caught on the counter. United’s front two of Anthony Martial and Daniel James split wide, making frequent runs in the hope of catching City’s high line as Bruno Fernandes attempted longer balls forward.
It was a pure, and simple, counter-attacking approach, mimicking how they succeeded in a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture last December, although on that occasion Solskjaer deployed a 4-2-3-1.
It is highly likely the United manager will stick with a 3-4-1-2, despite the issues in midweek, because this will help them double up on Riyad Mahrez out wide while keeping enough bodies up for those breaks.
Tom Carnduff
Manchester United have only been winning at half-time in one of their last six games across all competitions, that being an expected win at home to Istanbul Basaksehir. They keep making slow starts and as better teams have shown, they can punish that. With that in mind, the 7/5 best price available on City to be winning at half-time looks really good value.
United keep making poor starts and they are showing no signs of that coming to an end. It may not be a completely open and free-scoring game, but City can certainly start the better of the two sides.
Even with City winning at the break, we shouldn't be overly surprised to see if United find a way to get back into the contest and potentially win it. It totally depends on what United team turns up, it's almost a mystery at this point, but poor first-half performances remain the one rare consistency at the moment.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City ()
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Odds correct at 1200 GMT (10/12/20)
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