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Tom Carnduff

With Pablo Hernandez out through injury, Rodrigo should return to the starting XI having featured from the bench last time out. He scored against Manchester City and loves taking shots. His last five appearances for Leeds, three of which have been as a sub, have seen at least three shots in each.

Two of those shots against Arsenal came from outside the area, cutting onto his left foot and looking to find the far corner. Before that, his shots from outside the box rate was two from four against Villa and two from three against Sheffield United. Given how weak this Everton defence can be, he should enjoy a few more efforts here.

We're not looking for a 40-yard screamer, just one shot from near the D finding the net. That will be his most effective area and Rodrigo will score on multiple occasions from this area during his Leeds career. At 25/1, it's worth a small play on the Spanish international scoring from distance.

Elsewhere, Leeds could enjoy some success down Everton's right-hand side and that could mean an assist for Jack Harrison. The winger has two on his tally but could exploit a lack of tracking back from the hosts and grab another helper here. Betfair provide the best price of 5/1 on this happening.

Score prediction: Everton 2-2 Leeds ()

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Bielsa’s tactics could create open game

Then again, the complexity of Leeds’ approach and the sheer numbers they pour forward in attack should make for an open contest – and at least a couple of goals for the visitors. Everton’s dreadful defensive record did not improve at Fulham, where the issues simply shifted from the gaps behind James to the centre of the pitch. This is an alarming prospect when welcoming Leeds to Goodison Park.

Bielsa looks to play incisive vertical football, with bodies bursting ahead of the play for direct balls into the channels and in behind. The essential - and fascinating - aspect of this is clever one-twos between the wingers and midfielders, in which the initial passer follows the ball with their run, rather than run at an angle to it, and receives a very short pass back to feet.

This is unique in the Premier League, and ensures the wide playmaker picks up the ball at pace in the middle of the park. What’s more, as soon as the winger passes the ball and follows it, a third player begins their forward run, creating a choreographed one-two-three. From this position, having broken the lines, Bielsa teams generally move the ball out to the opposite flank – but not if there is a gaping hole through the centre.

Both of Fulham’s goals on Saturday came from simple one-twos around the edge of the D, with Everton’s two-man midfield looking woefully under-stocked to leave their centre-backs flat-footed. That’s the risk Ancelotti runs when moving to a width-focused 3-4-3, and if Fulham can easily build possession here then Jack Harrison and Helder Costa should be able to burst menacingly from out to in.

The James issue if Ancelotti goes for 4-3-3

Goals are fancied


Odds correct at 1115 GMT (24/11/20)

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