Michael Beardmore
Best bet:
Michael Beardmore
Is it time to talk about Leicester City’s home form? That’s the million dollar question as Brendan Rodgers’ men welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to the East Midlands on Monday evening.
The Foxes would be top of the Premier League pile if not for three very unexpected home defeats in their past four – a 3-0 shocker against West Ham, a narrow 1-0 loss to Aston Villa and, most surprising of all, a 2-1 defeat to Fulham a fortnight ago.
Contrast that with champagne away wins at Manchester City (5-2) and Leeds (4-1) plus a 1-0 victory at Arsenal and it’s a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly with the impact of fans out of the equation.
Visitors Brighton are becoming slightly easier to assess, a team that has been competitive in virtually every game this term, as evidenced by the fact that their past seven matches have been draws or one-goal victories either way.
A 1-1 draw with reigning champions Liverpool at The Amex was among that run and the Seagulls have been no slouches on their travels either this season, winning at Newcastle and Villa, holding Crystal Palace and only narrowly losing at Spurs.
So, while odds of even money generally – and even a best-priced 11/10 with Unibet – are on offer about a home win, which I would usually snap up when a fourth-placed team hosts one in 16th, you can understand why the Foxes’ form at the King Power makes me tentative.
If we leave aside the outright outcome, there are other intriguing markets at play here in terms of cards and penalties – two things both these teams have had plenty of this term.
Leicester top the Premier League ill-discipline table with 24 yellow cards this season, while Brighton have had 18 bookings and three red cards.
William Hill offer 11/2 on a sending-off on Sunday night and I wouldn’t put you off – but my main worry is the appointment of Martin Atkinson to officiate proceedings. He’s been fairly lenient this term, dishing out an average of just two cards per game.
Thus, it’s to the penalty spot where I’m heading given these sides are very much the Premier League’s spot-kick kings these past three months.
As our eagle-eyed Premier League: Punting Pointers column observed earlier this week, Leicester top the penalty charts with eight spot-kicks awarded to them. They have given away one too, while Brighton have earned five and conceded five.
If you’re keeping count, that’s 19 penalties awarded in the 22 games these sides have played this season – almost one per game – which is enough to chew on before we even mention VAR.
You can get general odds of 7/4 on Atkinson to point to the spot at the King Power. Sky Bet go 9/4 that one is scored but why risk it for a minimal price difference? They also offer 11/1 on two or more spot-kicks being given if you’re feeling adventurous but I’ll stick with the 7/4 that requires just one use of the referee’s whistle – or earpiece – in the area.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-1 Brighton ()
Best bet:
Joe Townsend
Sunday's opening game pits two sides against each other who could hardly have experienced more contrasting fortunes since the introduction of behind-closed-doors football.
Southampton's 38 points from 20 fixtures is mightily impressive, and their current position of fifth in the Premier League table is a fair reflection of how they've performed since the 2019/20 campaign resumed back in June.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given they're bottom with just a point after 11 matches this season, no team has fared worse without fans than Sheffield United. Having taken 43 points from 28 fixtures before last term's unprecedented interruption, Chris Wilder's team have only managed to collect 12 from the subsequent 21.
While the Blades have pushed plenty of opponents close, none more so than Leicester who needed a last-minute Jamie Vardy strike to take all three points last weekend, I simply cannot make a case for them to get anything on Sunday.
I'm actually a little surprised to see a Southampton win trading at around 7/10, a price that some serious punters will probably take on at a hefty stake. The 6/5 on offer by combining a home win with over 1.5 goals is tempting given Saints' record of finding the net twice in every home game this season, and in eight of their 11 league games altogether.
Another potential avenue is Southampton/under 3.5 goals at 11/8, which is smart given Sheffield United's long-term consistency for being involved in low-scoring contests - 50 of their previous 54 fixtures have seen under 3.5 goals.
But one of those four exceptions was a 3-1 win for Saints during Project Restart, which is enough to put me off.
The odds of 10/11 for Ralph Hasenhuttl's side to score at least twice, or to score over 1.5 goals depending on where you bet, are slightly skinnier, but in this season of bizarre results, I prefer it; the Blades are approaching nothing-to-lose territory after all.
On to who is likely to score those Southampton goals, and it's hard to argue with the case put forward by Tom Carnduff in this week's Premier League: Punting Pointers.
No top-flight team has scored more than the seven times Saints have struck at set-pieces this season, and only Leicester (6) have conceded more from corners and free-kicks than Sheffield United. Dead-ball specialist James Ward-Prowse is 11/1 with Sky Bet to score from outside the box, but the 15/8 for the England midfielder to bag an assist is where my money is going.
In terms of who he's providing for, Jannik Vestergaard notched his third goal of the season at Brighton on Monday, and centre-back partner Jan Bednarek found the net in Southampton's last home game against Manchester United.
A case could easily be made for either to add to the Blades' woes, but with Vestergaard on the scoresheet as recently as this week he will surely be a marked man. The Dane may have scored three goals to his team-mate's one so far this season, but both players have five attempts.
Bednarek's 20/1 anytime price as opposed to Vestergaard's 13/1 clinches it.
Score prediction: Southampton 2-0 Sheffield United ()
Best bets:
Joe Townsend
Best bet:
Mark O'Haire
Since the beginning of 2018/19, Liverpool have posted wonderful W18-D2-L1 figures away at bottom-half Premier League teams – an 86% win ratio that is reflected in their skinny 1/3 odds to triumph in the capital. But what’s most noticeable out of those 21 tussles is the sheer lack of high-scoring contests that have played out.
Only six of those fixtures featured over 3.5 goals and just one match ended with five or more, with the Liverpool victory alongside under 4.5 goals paying out on 17 (81%) occasions. While the pre-match quotes give Liverpool a 75% chance of victory, adding under 4.5 goals at 7/8 with Betway is rated at just a 53% chance.
There’s a fair degree of discrepancy between the two and I’m happy to take the plunge and punt the Reds to succeed in a relatively low-scoring clash. We have the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, plus the 2-1 and 3-1 correct scores onside, an outcome that’s landed in six of Fulham’s eight defeats since the Cottagers returned to the top flight.
Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Liverpool ()
Best bet:
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (10/12/20)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit .
Further support and information can be found at and .