Michael Beardmore
The wheels have not exactly come off but back-to-back losses have certainly dampened enthusiasm in the claret and blue half of the Second City ahead of Aston Villa’s trip to Arsenal on Sunday night.
Successive home defeats to Leeds and Southampton quickly put an end to Dean Smith’s side’s 100% start but those humbling reverses could not have come in more contrasting styles.
Villa were all over the place in the second half of the 3-0 home loss to Leeds but dominated all of the stats against Southampton only to lose 4-3 to the Saints’ only four shots on target.
Predicting which Villa turn up at The Emirates – the early-season clean sheet kings or the defensive ditherers – is key to unlocking the value here but also virtually impossible.
Hosts Arsenal are perhaps flying under the radar but have beaten the teams they ‘should beat’ – Villa are in that category despite their fine start – and are showing signs of regaining their once-famed defensive steel under Mikel Arteta.
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If the duo do adopt a pragmatic approach, the draw at 12/5 has to be considered, but the more appealing punt would be to oppose goals. Under 3.5 Goals is trading at 3/4 and was a regular winner when both City and Liverpool went head-to-head with fellow top-half teams in 2019/20, although the size of value available in this selection is only marginal.
Admittedly, both clashes between the pair produced four or more goals last season but one arrived after the Reds were crowned champions. However, 11 of City’s remaining 16 matches with top-10 finishers featured three goals or fewer (two of the five that didn’t came against Burnley). The same could be said of 14 of Liverpool’s 16 outings against the same standard of opposition when excluding City.
Meanwhile, I’m happy to have an interest on Sadio Mane making two or more tackles at even-money. The Senegalese winger will be on the same side as Kyle Walker, Kevin De Bruyne and Ferran Torres in Man City’s proposed 4-3-3 and therefore should be involved in plenty of action, with and without the ball.
Mane’s defensive contribution cannot be doubted; the former Metz youngster has made at least two tackles in four of his six Premier League encounters already in 2020/21 and made at least one successful tackle in 11 of his final 12 games last term, highlighting his commitment to the cause. He made four tackles in the first clash with City in 2019/20.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Liverpool ()
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Joe Townsend
If I was a West Brom fan, I'd be worried. If I was Slaven Bilic, even more so. This really feels like crunch time for the Albion boss with the international break imminent, and his side without a win after seven Premier League games.
Their slow start at relegation rivals Fulham last time out will have used up much of the credit Bilic had left in the bank after winning promotion from the Sky Bet Championship in his first season in charge.
The fact they could only manage one shot on target against a team as defensively porous as the Cottagers speaks volumes - I really struggle to make any kind of case for West Brom here.
Tottenham are unsurprisingly a heavy odds-on to maintain their 100% start to the season away from home. What does surprise me is that against such a goal-shy Albion team, they're 13/8 to win to nil - a price I really like.
It's no secret that Spurs have struggled to keep clean sheets for well over a year now, a problem that long pre-dates Jose Mourinho's appointment as manager. While he doesn't seem to have cracked the magic formula just yet, in recent weeks Tottenham have certainly been trending in the right direction.
Since dramatically collapsing against West Ham, when they threw away a 3-0 half-time lead, Spurs have conceded just twice in four games in all competitions. Moreover, Tariq Lamptey's goal for Brighton never should have stood last weekend; only the stubborn Graham Scott can tell us why he refused to correct his own error.
They should be able to keep out a West Brom side whose expected goals (xG) has been under 0.5 in five of their seven league games this season.
Score prediction: West Brom 0-2 Tottenham ()
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Joe Townsend
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Odds correct on 1630 BST (05/11/20)
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