Best bet:
This has the hallmarks of being a really good contest. Southampton have picked up of late after a slow start to the season, backing up wins over Burnley and West Brom by fighting back to draw at Chelsea. They'll be without the man who created their late equaliser, Theo Walcott, as he's ineligible to play against his parent club.
Everton showed their mettle in a 2-2 draw with Merseyside rivals Liverpool last time out, somewhat overshadowed by more noteworthy events at Goodison that day. Virgil van Dijk's injury, courtesy of an unpunished horror challenge from Jordan Pickford, has quite rightly taken the headlines.
But the fact remains that in all competitions Carlo Ancelotti's team have drawn one and won seven games this term. For the Toffees to be such a healthy odds-against for their trip to the south coast does come as a surprise.
While their form has been superb, Everton haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their past six matches. In the league, they've conceded twice in three of their past four fixtures.
Best bets:
Wolves welcome Newcastle to Molineux and appear an appealing play. The Old Gold are rated 4/5 shots to seize maximum points – quite a change from the 9/20 that was offered in the same fixture last January. Of course, the lack of home supporters has had an impact on the price, although evidence suggests Wanderers remain as tough as old boots to beat.
On Monday, Nuno’s troops were second-best for large swathes of their showdown at Elland Road, coming to the fore after the interval, a familiar trend to Wolves’ followers last term. Raul Jimenez’s deflected strike proved decisive and his partnership with Daniel Podence will be key to the Old Gold’s hopes of progress as rebuilding work continues.
Newcastle faced 14 shots on-target in their 4-1 defeat at home to Man Utd last time out, and have been comfortably dispatched by Brighton also. The 1-1 draw earned at Tottenham in the Magpies’ most recent road trip was completely unjust and Steve Bruce’s boys have again been defying the data to collect their seven-point haul (W2-D1-L2).
Thus far, Newcastle have averaged only 2.40 shots on-target per-game and somehow managed to convert 57% of their total on-target efforts. That’s a completely unsustainable rate and highlighted further by the fact the visitors are generating only 0.87 non-penalty Expected Goals (xG) on average, another alarming reflection on the Toon’s output.
Wolves won 33 points against the bottom-seven in 2019/20 and should be well capable of collecting top honours here at a decent price. I will be greedy though, and chuck in Under 4.5 Goals to bolster the odds on offer to evens. Only four of the hosts’ 40 Molineux matches in the Premier League under Nuno have concluded with five or more goals.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-0 Newcastle ()
Best bet:
Odds correct on 1030 BST (23/10/20)
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