It was in this game last season, on a Friday night, in which Leicester went to St. Mary’s and won 9-0.

I obviously don’t expect the same scoreline here, but the same result looks likely given the way these two teams have been trending of late.

Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Defence now the issue for Saints

Southampton’s second half of the season has been horrendous.

Since they beat Liverpool in their first game of 2021, no team has collected fewer points in the Premier League than Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side, who have managed just seven in 15 league games – even rock bottom Sheffield United have managed more than double that tally (15).

They have conceded a whopping 39 goals in that time, and while they have been on the end of some rotten luck defensively according to expected goals against (xGA – 26.7), their xGA average in that time is still hugely concerning.

What is expected goals (xG)?

• Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
• Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
• Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team

Southampton have allowed an average of 1.78 xGA per game since beating the champions, with only Crystal Palace (1.89) and Sheffield United (1.94) performing worse in that category.

Leicester in a good moment

Brendan Rodgers’s side have the ability to expose the Saints vulnerable backline, and this game represents an excellent opportunity to all-but confirm their seat at Europe’s top table next season.

After a small wobble, losing to both Manchester City and West Ham, Leicester bounced back with successive wins in the league, beating both West Brom and Crystal Palace at the King Power.

It isn’t fresh news to learn that the Foxes have done their best work away from home this season, winning 10 of 16 while boasting the sixth best away xG process in the league, so those home wins will boost their confidence even more ahead of this trip.

They now hold a seven-point lead over fifth-placed West Ham with just five games remaining, but with their final three matches being against Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham, the importance of this game is huge.

Kalechi Iheanacho is in the form of his life right now, and the 7/5 available about him scoring here did tempt me, as his non-penalty xG per 95 minutes this season is at an impressive 0.49, which ranks him eighth best in the Premier League, showing he is getting in good scoring positions regularly.