The fairness rating is calculated by taking the quality of chances created and conceded by each team in a match and simulating every possibility to see how likely each result was.
The result was the least of everyone’s worries in this clash given what happened, but the fact that Finland won the game by scoring with their only chance of the match is worth a mention.
The Finns couldn’t create anything, before or after the game was suspended, other than what proved to be the winner, with the Infogol model calculating that they had just a 6% chance of winning the game based on the chances both sides created.
Scotland suffered an opening day defeat to Czech Republic, but they shouldn’t be as downbeat and deflated as many were, as Steve Clarke’s side did create plenty of chances.
The Scots racked up 2.29 xG, with Infogol calculating just a 10% chance they would fail to score in the match from the chances they generated, while simulations of the game suggested they had a 60% chance of winning the fixture.
Only Hungary (0.23) put up an xG total lower than the Euro 2020 favourites, who got their win thanks to an own goal. They did keep the Germans fairly quiet though in the game with lowest combined xG of the opening 12 matches (1.41). We calculate the French had a 10% chance of winning the match based on chances created.
Slovakia were another fortunate winner, as they scored twice from chances equating to 0.49 xG, with Infogol calculating a 9% chance of that happening. They also played against 10 men for the final 30 minutes.
Wales rode their luck against Switzerland, allowing the third highest xG total of the round (2.60) but escaping Baku with a point. Infogol calculates the Dragons had a 19% chance of avoiding defeat.
Spain and Sweden played out the only goalless draw of the opening 12 matches, but the game in Seville was the one that saw the most combined xG of all the games (4.08).
We calculate just a 2% chance that that game would finish goalless, while it was Spain (2.89 xG) who ranked the best attacking team in round one without scoring.
Belgium and Italy both won 3-0 against Russia and Turkey respectively, with both impressing in attack and defence.
The Red Devils were clinical, scoring three goals from nine shots equating to 1.56 xG, while the Azzurri were high-quantity, low-quality in their win, taking 24 shots equating to 2.03 xG.
Frank de Boer’s Netherlands impressed offensively, and should have won their game against Ukraine more comfortably than they eventually did.
England were in cruise control against Croatia, keeping the 2018 World Cup runners-up at bay, with the Croats generating just 0.54 xG.
Spain’s so-called ‘lack of cutting edge’ couldn’t be further from the truth. La Furia Roja created an abundance of chances, their issue was that they didn’t take them. Keep creating the chances, and they will be a huge danger in this competition.
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