Just as we thought Manchester City were back to their usual best, they are held to a 1-1 draw by a West Brom side who were leaking goals for fun and sacked their head coach soon after. Perhaps we should acknowledge that they did have an xG figure of 2.82 compared with the Baggies' 0.43 but it was a real setback ahead of a busy run.

Southampton are enjoying a fantastic start and sit third after 13 games. That is made even more impressive by the fact that they lost their first two games and had to spend a five-week period with main striker Danny Ings missing. He is back and firing though and the Saints, despite being big outsiders, will be hoping they can push City here.

They're 1/2 to get onto the scoresheet and goals can be expected, it's just the way Southampton play. They want to press out of possession and look to attack in it. One thing that has been a consistent strength is their goals from set-pieces - they lead the Premier League in this category with eight.

Now, Manchester City aren't a complete mess at set-piece defending but they have conceded a couple from this situation so far. What is interesting though is how loose they have become with it in recent weeks and that is reflected in the shots statistics.

In the draw with West Brom, they conceded two shots to defenders (Semi Ajayi, who scored, and Darnell Furlong). Against Manchester United, Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof combined for three shots. In the 2-0 win over Fulham, Tosin Adarabioyo and Ola Aina had one each.

Going back further, James Tarkowski had an effort on goal in the 5-0 win over Burnley while Tottenham, who only had four shots in their 2-0 win over City, saw one of those efforts come from Eric Dier. If you go back to the contest against Arsenal, David Luiz, Gabriel and Kieran Tierney combined for a huge six total shots.

While we may not believe City will concede from a set-piece based on a quick look at the headline numbers, the chances they have presented to opposition defenders will be a worry and against this Southampton team, it may well cost them a goal. That is why Jannik Vestergaard is well overpriced at 55/1 for the first goal and 18/1 to strike anytime.

The Saints centre-back has already scored three this season, including one in the recent win over Brighton, while he has also had at least one shot in each of his last three outings. His aerial presence is clear and only Burnley's Tarkowski can boast a better aerial duels won rate for centre-backs in the Premier League.