Best bet:
Best bet:
For the second weekend in a row, Manchester City host a game where the odds heavily favour a home victory. They delivered in their annual 5-0 hammering of Burnley and they face another side at the bottom end of the table in Fulham.
Scott Parker's men upset the odds with victory at Leicester on Monday but they are very likely to leave empty-handed here; 20/1 is the price on Fulham picking up all three points on offer. However, despite the odds heavily against them, they do have the potential to score at least once.
It's even money that Fulham get onto the scoresheet but their position in the table doesn't necessarily reflect their attacking ability. Their xG figure this season is 14.0, Manchester City sit just above them on 14.6. They have scored eleven goals across their ten games so far.
They netted three away at Leeds, two at Leicester, one at Sheffield United and should have scored at West Ham, although Ademola Lookman looked to Panenka a penalty in the last second, the less said on that the better. To be fair to Lookman, he has since redeemed himself with two good performances.
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West Ham can make a strong case for being the surprise package of the season. A period of questionable transfer activity during the off-season combined with a tough start to the campaign led to many believing they will be battling relegation. After ten games, they sit fifth with 17 points on their tally.
On the flip side, Manchester United continue to be unpredictable under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. They beat a top German side in RB Leipzig 5-0 while losing 6-1 to Tottenham. Consistency remains an issue and they were beaten by PSG in the Champions League last time out.
This game does look a tough one to call based on West Ham's record so far this season but maybe the away side do represent decent value if choosing a result in the outright market. Instead, while it dives into an odds-on price, it's worth siding with over 2.5 goals here.
Each of Manchester United's last seven away games in all competitions have seen three or more goals scored, while West Ham have hit the same target in six of their ten Premier League contests so far.
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Leeds have not disappointed in the Premier League season. Marcelo Bielsa's side are entertaining and picked up a deserved win at Everton last time out. The odds heavily favour Chelsea here, and whatever happens, they know that games like this won't really define their season.
Big-spending Chelsea are in fantastic form having avoided defeat in their last 12 games in all competitions, eight of those have ended in victory. Wednesday's win at Sevilla was the seventh time during that run where they have scored at least three goals.
It will be interesting to see what type of game this will turn out to be. Chelsea's run of games there have been fairly unchallenging and they've beaten teams they would have been expected to. As Joe Townsend points out, they are yet to really impress when facing those around them at the top.
Leeds are fearless and will play their way, regardless of the opponent. They have conceded four in three games this season, but they are balancing it out with their 15 goals scored in ten games. When it comes to expected goals, only Liverpool, Aston Villa and Tottenham can boast a higher figure.
With this in mind, there is a huge 22/1 bet worth taking on and that is on Leeds having 18 or more total shots on Saturday. A big ask, but one they have done on multiple occasions. Bielsa's men had 23 at Everton and 25 against Arsenal the week before.
At Aston Villa, they had an eye-watering 27 shots. Against Manchester City, despite the game finishing 1-1, their xG figure was 2.71. They may be a newly-promoted team, but Leeds are approaching these games in the right way. They are challenging the traditional 'big hitters' in contests that are essentially free hits.
It's a big ask for Leeds to have at least 18 here, of course, but it's worth a small play just in case the game turns out that way. Looking elsewhere, it's also worth a play on Leeds tackles given their high number and Mateusz Klich stands out in this area.
A number of Leeds players make a claim for backing in the stats markets, Luke Ayling being one in tackles, but 9/4 is available on Klich seeing three or more successful tackles. He has hit that target in three of Leeds' five away games this season.
Best bet:
Best bet:
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (03/12/20)
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