Let’s see how itchy Roman Abramovich’s trigger finger is if they’re a distant ninth by Christmas, but barring something bizarre it’ll be one of the following who becomes the first managerial casualty.
It’s commonly known as the sack race but since it’s officially the ‘next Premier League manager to go’ there are a couple of names who you could see walking out on their club rather than being sacked – some at decent prices too.
Roy Hodgson
Let’s start with the favourites and poor old Roy Hodgson has a raw deal at Crystal Palace – a club seemingly going nowhere and one that was desperately dull to watch last season, scoring just 31 goals in the league. They’re the only team to fail to score more than twice in a single game and not get relegated in Premier League history.
Eberechi Eze’s an exciting signing but it’ll probably mean Wilfried Zaha finally leaves, effectively putting them back to square one.
Last season’s form usually counts for nothing but this year’s different given the tiny gap in campaigns, so the fact the Eagles took four points after the restart and lost seven of their last eight is concerning.
They may well have been on the beach mentally, but broaden it out and the fact they picked up the fewest points in 2020 out of anyone in the league (16) and that’s a real problem. The one saving grace for Hodgson is that there genuinely seems to be a lack of ambition at Selhurst and they’re probably looking to just ride out this pandemic with survival the big aim again.
David Moyes
It’s not always managers of relegation strugglers who get sacked first – it’s the club with ambition who feels they’re way below where they should be that you have to watch out for. You throw in an ownership who doesn’t really have a vision for their team and who doesn’t mind sacking managers and you have the perfect storm for a managerial hot seat.
It doesn’t get much warmer than at West Ham, and if you take a look at their brutal run of opening fixtures then it’s very easy to see them sitting in the drop zone after seven games. In fact, if they fail to get three points on the opening day they're in big trouble as they'll be underdogs in the next six.
Moyes hasn’t exactly torn it up during either of his two short spells in charge, although he is consistent with an almost identical win percentage - tasting victory 15 times in 52 outings doesn’t inspire huge confidence.
Moyes' first West Ham spell: P31 W9 D10 L28 29% | Second spell: P21 W6 D5 L10 28.6%
West Ham fixtures: Newcastle (H) | Arsenal (A) | Wolves (H) | Leicester (A) | Tottenahm (A) | Man City (H) | Liverpool (A)
The Hammers beat Norwich and Watford to get out of trouble last season but it looked close for a while, and West Ham won’t want to run it anywhere near that close again. While they're not expected to win many of their opening fixtures, heavy defeats will heap pressure on Moyes.
He’s the one to back in this field.
Steve Bruce
An interesting side note is Newcastle visit West Ham on the opening day, but while that’s almost a must-win for the Hammers given their fixtures, Bruce’s men have a few more friendly fixtures dotted around their start to ease themselves into the season.
You’ve got to feel for Bruce with all the uncertainty about the on-off takeover talks, but he's had a huge boost towards the end of the summer with Mike Ashley stumping up to sign Callum Wilson, Ryan Fraser and Jamal Lewis.
That puts a totally different picture on their prospects this season, and there's now genuine optimisim on Tyneside that they at least won't be invovled in the relegation battle.
Ironically though it could put more pressure on Bruce to deliver, but that's a much better pressure than having no signings and fighting against the drop. With Newcastle, though, we’ve come to expect the unexpected.
Just a word on a few of the leading names in the frame who seem, to me at least, to be relatively secure in their positions. Dean Smith isn’t too far down the list, but keeping Villa up has given him plenty of credit in the bank and there was more than just a suggestion that he we just getting his side into gear down the stretch.
Signing Ollie Watkins will help.
Scott Parker deserves a decent run given the way he got Fulham back into the division at the first time of asking - a new three-year contract suggests he'll get it - while Slaven Billic also seems to have the faith of his bosses at West Brom.
Graham Potter falls into this category too, as Brighton struggled last season but they were changing their style and the club feel Potter is the man to do that – he’ll get time to show his workings as he looks to transform them into ball-playing Premier League regulars.
If it was just down to approval ratings from fans, Marcelo Bielsa would be 1000/1 at least to leave Leeds, the fact he’s not and as short as 12/1 is purely down to him not officially signing a new contract with the Premier League newcomers as yet.
That seems like just a formality though, so if you’re looking for value and thinking this enigmatic manager might throw in a curve ball and leave, you’re most likely barking up the wrong tree here with the Argentine looking well set at Elland Road.
Instead, there are two more intriguing contenders here. Sean Dyche being a real fascinating storyline at Burnley and Nuno Espirito Santo apparently ‘stalling’ on a new deal at Wolves.
Dyche getting Burnley into Europe a few years ago was incredible, but getting them to finish 10th last season may have been even better given their continual lack of investment in the squad to any kind of level. They’re punching miles above their weight and Dyche keeps on producing.