Wout Weghorst battles Andy Robertson for the ball

Premier League top four odds: Who will qualify for the Champions League?


Clear separations between teams can be both good and bad for competition, it simply depends on the splits between the teams in those groups.

This season, the neutral may have more to look forward to than any other Premier League campaign. Tight battles for pivotal places are in progress at every level of the table.

Of course, the title race and survival fight take precedent, but the opportunity to secure a Champions League spot next season is on the mind of many teams.

Chelsea, Brentford and Fulham are 50/1, 100/1 and 250/1 respectively to make the top four, and it's fairly easy to dismiss them as a result. It's safe to say two of the five teams at the top of the market will fill the places.

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  • Manchester United - 1/5
  • Newcastle - 1/1
  • Liverpool - 2/1
  • Tottenham - 2/1
  • Brighton - 9/2

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (22/03/23)

Manchester United: 3rd - 50 points

Talk of a Manchester United title charge was understandably short lived.

Erik ten Hag's side are a level below Arsenal and Manchester City this season, dropping into this fight recently. They do appear to be a comfortable choice to finish in third place on all known evidence, however.

Perhaps other commitments will distract United, chasing a cup treble in the 2022/23 campaign, but , which bodes well for a team that has done well against teams outside the 'big six', despite the rough start they had.

Indeed, United have averaged an impressive 2 points per game versus the other 14 clubs thus far this term, with only Chelsea (h) and Tottenham (a) to come from the 'big six' in the remaining 12 league matches.

United's underlying performances are good enough to consolidate third and cap a terrific first season under Ten Hag, especially with the upcoming schedule.

Tottenham: 4th - 49 points

Antonio Conte's rant rather sums up the latter part of Tottenham's season thus far.

Spurs' underlying performances have been fairly dreadful since the World Cup, as shown by the severe decline in their rolling xG averages under Conte in the Premier League.

If reports are true, the Italian appears to be set for the sack, a swift demise after starting so well for Tottenham, but something clearly has to change at a club synonymous with underachievement.

There really is an opportunity for the interim manager to get Tottenham back on track, though, currently still in a UCL qualification spot with a bit of a buffer to sixth.

Conte was correct in some of his complaints, however, making this international break a vital one for the Tottenham hierarchy.


Newcastle: 5th - 47 points

Newcastle are way ahead of schedule. Not many would have expected them to be challenging for a Champions League spot so soon, but here they are, two points from fourth place with two games in hand.

Encouragingly for the Geordies, there is areas to be improved upon, although they will need to do just that if they wish to qualify for the UCL. Away displays are a particular domain of interest.

Although they've gained 21 points on their travels this term, Newcastle's underlying numbers leave a bit to be desired for a team so dominant as hosts, .

, picking De Zerbi's side to finish in top four is not long shot at this point.

Although they face crunch matches with Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City in April, with at least one game in hand on every team above them, Brighton are a live contender.

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