Burnley and Leeds are battling for survival in the Premier League. Jake Osgathorpe has all you need to know for the relegation fight, including a data dive into both sides.
On average, over the past 10 seasons, 35 points has been enough to retain your spot in England's top-flight, with no side going higher than that across the past five campaigns.
Everton pulled well clear of that total in midweek when beating Crystal Palace to secure their Premier League status, meaning it's between Burnley and Leeds for the final relegations place.
Leeds moved back into the relegation zone after Burnley drew at Aston Villa, with the Clarets having a far superior goal difference to the Whites and know they will survive if they match Leeds' result on Sunday.
Jake Osgathorpe assesses the teams fighting to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in the Championship.
Current Premier League table
17. Burnley | Played: 37 | Points: 35 | Goal Difference: -18
18. Leeds | Played: 37 | Points: 35 | Goal Difference: -38
Premier League relegation odds ()
- 1/3 - Leeds
- 9/4 - Burnley
Odds correct at 0900 (20/05/22)
All in all, the Whites have performed like a mid-table team under their American coach. He couldn't have really done much more.
The Infogol model gives the Whites a on the final day, and a 44% chance of avoiding defeat, meaning more likely than not they will need Burnley to slip up drastically if they are to survive.
How much have Burnley improved?
- Burnley remaining fixtures: Sunday, May 22: Newcastle (H)
- Infogol % chance of relegation: 27.6%
Burnley's draw at Aston Villa on Thursday means they are outside the relegation places heading into the final day, and know they will survive if they equal or better Leeds' result.
They were well-beaten by Tottenham at the weekend, in a second successive defeat, but the 1-1 draw at Villa was more like what we have come to see from Mike Jackson's side, who created the better of the chances (xG: AVL 1.23 - 1.88 BUR).
In total, the Clarets have generated an since sacking Sean Dyche. Over the 30 games under Dyche they averaged 1.09 xGF per game, so we have seen an upturn due to a more attack-minded approach.
A hosting of a Newcastle side fresh from a 2-0 win over Arsenal will be tough, but, if Burnley continue doing what they have been doing against 'the rest', then they should pick up points.