Ahead of the seventh round of Premier League fixtures, our football team have some punting pointers based on the trends we've seen so far season.
Unders definitely back
Joe Townsend
I wrote last week that a few standout results masked what had actually happened during the fifth round of fixtures, with the reality that there had been a major drop in goals, a consequence of managers becoming more circumspect and defences finally getting up to the speed.
That downward trend has continued. There was an average of 3.8 goals per game scored across the opening four rounds of fixtures, matchday five's figure was 2.7 - exactly the same as 2019/20's full-season average - and last weekend it was just 1.9.
Every fixture saw under 3.5 goals, with 70% under 2.5.
Twelve of this season's opening 38 games involved under 2.5 goals - 13 of the last 20 have.
Despite this trend, just two matchday seven fixtures - Wolves v Palace and Fulham v West Brom - are odds-on to be under 2.5 goals. The only game that sticks out to me as one to avoid is Liverpool v West Ham, appropriately priced at around 7/4.
For those looking for value from an accumulator then it's there; the odds simply don't stack up.
Call it a draw?
Joe Townsend
Along similar lines to our unders pointer, and something we suggested backing both last week and the week prior, is the draw.
Just 8% of fixtures before the international break, matchdays 1-4, ended level but 45% of fixtures have been drawn since - almost double 2019/20's overall number of 24%.
The statistics are even more in our favour than that too. In the 20 fixtures since the break, only three games have had a winning margin of more than one goal - things are getting tighter, and that brings the draw into play even more.
While this might seem scattergun, spreading across various games is the way to go this weekend.
The draw is the outside bet in half of the fixtures, with the matches involving Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Man City and Wolves seeing their opponents priced as huge underdogs.
Elsewhere it's a pretty consistent 5/2. Backing the draw in each of those, supposedly, closer contests would mean two wins to break even and three to return a profit. It's worth looking at the bigger prices on offer in the other half of the fixtures though, as Burnley v Chelsea (4/1) is a real tempter given the way the Clarets played against Tottenham.
Heading slightly off-piste, look a lot more appealing than a Blues win at 1/2.
Value in White
Tom Carnduff
Firing full-backs
Joe Townsend
This punt is tricky to give specific advice on when the markets aren't available for this weekend, but here goes.
The number of times we have seen full-backs (or wing-backs) cut inside and fire a speculative shot on goal this season is a reflection of the more attacking mindset of modern-day defenders. Some you'd be less surprised to see try their luck than others - Reece James, Trent Alexander-Arnold or Serge Aurier for instance - but the price differentials are stark.
Nuggets are there to be found, and only teams who use full-backs in truly defensive roles should be excluded from the equation. Otherwise, in matches where an opponent packs the defence, full-backs are often an outlet as the extra man to break through. In a more open game, they're more like old fashioned wingers in terms of attacking involvement.
Six full-backs/wing-backs have averaged at least a shot per game this season; Enda Stevens and Arthur Masuaku are the ones to look out for this weekend.
Stevens, whose has had at least one shot from left-wing-back in every game other than the Blades' trip to Aston Villa, when they played 75 minutes with 10 men. Last time out against Liverpool, he had two.
Masuaku also has just the one failure to his name, but managed a couple in their thrilling comeback against Spurs and had an effort against City last time out as well;
As a starting point, look out for the odds-against price on 1+ total shots - I will be.
Reds shoot on sight
Joe Townsend
Of all the stats after six games of the season, this one sticks out most - Liverpool have somehow had 29 more shots than any other team in the Premier League. The only extra context needed is that Manchester City have played a game fewer.
But while Jurgen Klopp's side have racked up 114 efforts on goal, City's 80 gives them an average of 16 per game - a long way adrift of the Reds' 19. In shots per game terms though, Pep Guardiola's men are Liverpool's nearest challengers.
The champions have failed to have at least 16 shots just twice in all competitions this season: their 7-2 thrashing at Aston Villa (they still had 14) and Tuesday's win over Midtjylland where Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino started on the bench.
Liverpool are wild with their attempts too, averaging only 6.83 shots on target in the league - a high number generally, but barely a third of their total attempts on goal.
Backing Mane or Salah in the multiple shots market has been a sensible avenue in recent seasons, but Klopp's decision to change formation against Sheffield United to include Diogo Jota as well is likely to mean the shots are shared out more - Liverpool's front four had 11 of the team's 17 attempts on Saturday.
Although they're unlikely to play 4-2-3-1 every week, it makes total shots a smarter, more reliable play.
From the handover
- Wolves: Under 2.5 total goals and HT 0-0
These have landed in three successive games, with Wolves looking like they're back to their old selves.
Eight of the Old Gold's final 13 matches in 2019/20 were 0-0 at half-time, with four of the five games that didn't make it seeing goals scored after the 41st minute. They finished third in the under 2.5 goals table with 63%, and 12 of their final 13 games in all competitions fell into that bracket.
Unless something drastic happens, these bets will win more often than they lose.
- Harry Kane/Heung-min Son: Assist/goal combination (and vice-versa)
This is more of a current form pointer, and one that landed as a 7/1 winning tip in Spurs' win at Burnley.
Harry Kane and Heung-min Son have combined for 29 Premier League goals, with only Chelsea's Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard ahead of them in the all time list. But they've linked up for NINE already this term, an astronomical increase given that they've been playing together for five seasons, and surely a result of their roles being tweaked by Jose Mourinho.
While ever the odds underestimate the likelihood of a Kane/Son or Son/Kane combination, we've got to take that value.
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