Arsenal vs Sheffield United

Sunday, 14:00

Arsenal were dominant against Fulham on the opening day, but the more we see of the Cottagers the less impressive that win appears, and the Gunners have been underwhelming since.

They were second best against West Ham, being fortunate to win (xG: ARS 1.3 – 2.3 WHU), before being handily beaten by Liverpool (xG: LIV 2.7 – 1.4 ARS). They created little in both, mustering a combined 11 shots in those two matches while allowing 35. That isn’t going to work in the long run.

Mikel Arteta’s side appear to be heavily reliant on moments in games, and since his appointment, no Premier League team has created fewer chances than Arsenal (217 - 9.4 per game). They really need to create more.

Sheffield United have been backed into third favourites for the drop on the back of their losing start to the season, but that looks like an overreaction to me.

The Blades were blown away in the opening six minutes against Wolves, but were competitive for the remainder of the match, and they went down to 10 men after 12 minutes in their loss against Aston Villa, but did well to allow only 1.0 xGA.

Against Leeds, they won the xG battle and were very unfortunate to come away empty handed (xG: SHU 1.7 – 1.3 LEE), as they continue to look like a staunch defensive unit.

Let’s not forget that they conceded only 39 goals from 38 games last season, and they had Arsenal’s number, beating them 1-0 at Bramall Lane and drawing 1-1 at the Emirates – winning the xG battle in both.

I can see Arsenal struggling to break the Blades down in this game, which would ultimately lead to a low-scoring game, and the under 2.5 goals is a value bet based on the Infogol model.

Best bet:

Wolves vs Fulham

Sunday, 14:00

Wolves were thumped by West Ham last weekend, going down 4-0 in an uncharacteristically poor display from Nuno’s side, as they allowed 2.7 xGA while creating just 0.6 xGF.

That loss followed a 3-1 defeat to Manchester City, and if ever there was an opponent you would want to play to get back on track, it would be this Fulham team.

Scott Parker’s side have been woeful to say the least so far this season, conceding 10 times in three matches and getting thumped 3-0 in both home games.

The loss at Craven Cottage to Aston Villa last time out was more concerning than their previous defeats, as according to the pre-season relegation odds, Villa were supposed to be a ‘relegation rival’ of Fulham’s.

They barely laid a glove on them, while looking extremely porous at the back once again (xG: FUL 0.8 – 2.1 AVL). It could be a long season for them.

Wolves are rightly short-priced favourites to win this one, but I was pleasantly surprised to see over 2.5 goals at odds against, with the hosts having the firepower to add to Fulham’s woes.

Best bet:

Manchester United vs Tottenham

Sunday, 16:30

To say that Manchester United got lucky last weekend would be a major understatement. The Red Devils were gifted a late penalty after being second best throughout the game (xG: BHA 2.9 – 1.9 MUN).

It was another worrying performance from a United team that are clearly feeling the effects of a late 19/20 finish and a lack of pre-season, as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side don’t look as sharp as they did post-break.

However, they have match-winners in their side, so will likely always create one or two good opportunities to score at the very least.

Defensively though, they look very gettable at the moment. Crystal Palace and Brighton had field days exploiting United’s vulnerability, and that wasn’t what we had come to expect from them, especially post-break (0.9 xGA per game).

Tottenham were on the wrong end of a controversial decision last weekend, as they conceded a very late penalty to Newcastle that was consequently dispatched, meaning they had to settle for a point.

It was a game in which Spurs were utterly dominant, creating chance after chance while allowing their opponents to create nothing (non-pen xG: TOT 3.5 – 0.2 NEW), meaning they were hugely unfortunate to come away with a 1-1 draw.