Manchester City may have been held by a heroic defensive display from West Brom in their last home game, but if Tuesday's 4-1 Carabao Cup hammering of Arsenal is anything to go by then they should return to the familiar territory of sweeping aside lower-half Premier League teams by a comfortable margin when they visit the Etihad.
City are 1/11 to beat Newcastle, with -2 on the handicap still providing an odds-on price in many places. Their midweek win made it nine games unbeaten in all competitions and we can expect that to become 10 on Boxing Day. Newcastle failed to inspire in their three-game run against the newly-promoted sides, one that included a 5-2 hammering at Leeds.
It is another game where six City players can be found at an odds-on price to score anytime. It's justified considering their record in the Pep Guardiola era and the fact they beat Steve Bruce's men 5-0 when the sides last met here in July. We can expect a similar outcome this time around.
With plenty of goals for the hosts expected, and a lot of City's usual suspects a very short price to score, the best value comes in backing Ilkay Gundogan to continue his decent goalscoring start to the campaign - he has three in all competitions.
Sheffield United's start has led to comparisons with Derby's infamous 2007/08 campaign, but they did pick up a point at Brighton last time out. They led up until the closing minutes, though in xG (Expected Goals) terms the Blades were lucky to avoid defeat - Albion posted a huge 3.01 to Sheffield United's 0.52.
This week sees them face an Everton side who have enjoyed a great run of results. Home wins over Arsenal and Chelsea either side of victory at Leicester means they will hold plenty of confidence going into a game that they are quite rightly odds-on to win.
The most impressive thing is that Carlo Ancelotti's side are doing this without fit full-backs and without their most creative player in James Rodriguez. His goals and assists rate may have dropped as the season has gone on but his attacking output has not and he is a vital part of this Toffees team.
The Blades are missing key players of their own but results have been far from acceptable in any circumstances. Generally though, Sheffield United are losing narrowly. Nine of their 12 defeats have been by a single goal, with only Chelsea, Southampton and Wolves bucking the trend.
If Chris Wilder's men are to lose again here, we can expect it to be another close game.
Before defeats against Manchester United and Leicester, the Blades' five matches at Bramall Lane had all seen under 2.5 goals. It's a trend that should continue but there is a bet that covers an Everton win with the hosts getting onto the scoresheet as well.
Everton to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 is a 15/8 shout with Sky Bet and that has been the scoreline in nine of Sheffield United's losses. It was also the result in each of Everton's three recent wins, while they beat Crystal Palace 2-1 and Tottenham 1-0 earlier this season.
Taking a low-scoring away win is the best bet in this game. The Blades' problems are evident, they are already 10 points adrift of safety and the picture could look a lot worse as we head into 2021.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-1 Everton ()
After being thumped by Manchester City in the last eight of the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, Arsenal's underwhelming season doesn't get any easier.
A game against a Chelsea side who have enjoyed beating bottom-half teams with ease is not what Mikel Arteta would have wanted as he searches for a result to both spark the Gunners' campaign into life, and - being brutally honest - to save his own skin.
They are 14th in the table and their top-four hopes are surely already over. We did make the point about trying not to write teams off too early but the statistics show nothing positive for in terms of things getting better; Arsenal fans must be following Brighton and Burnley's results more than Manchester United and Tottenham's these days.
For Chelsea, fifth place is decent enough at this stage of the season but they are trailing Liverpool by six points. We can make a case for giving Frank Lampard time to gel a team together, but a huge amount of money has been spent and anything less than involvement in the title race should be viewed as failure. The positive is that they can make it back-to-back wins here.
I'm really surprised to see Chelsea at even money in some places. Arsenal's season as a whole has been miserable and they've picked up just seven points from seven games at the Emirates - only four teams have a worse home record. There is an element of thinking Arsenal must turn things around eventually, but that is no justification to ignore such an attractive price on an away win.
The Blues' record against bottom-half teams this term is excellent, beating all of Brighton, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Leeds, Newcastle and Sheffield United by at least two goals. Whether Arsenal like it or not, for now at least, they belong in that group of teams.
This could turn out to be a very uncomfortable afternoon for Arteta, who has so far failed to find the right formula to utilise the talented attacking players at his disposal; Arsenal barely muster a shot, never mind a shot on target.
Chelsea invested heavily in their attack during the summer, including the acquisition of Timo Werner.
Premier League football returns to a wider audience when Aston Villa entertain Crystal Palace at 3pm on BBC One. The hosts are starting to accumulate points following a rough patch while Palace will be looking to bounce back from a 7-0 humiliation by Liverpool.
That was a remarkable game that summed up the madness of this season pretty well. Palace had enjoyed a good few weeks before that and the Reds were struggling somewhat; out of nowhere came a 7-0 away win, all the more bizarre given that the Eagles played fairly well in the first-half.
What we have here is a meeting between Villa and Palace teams who have hardly been inspiring with their respective home and away records. Since their 7-2 win over Liverpool (again, this Premier League season) Villa have picked up just one point from four home games; a welcome 0-0 draw with Burnley given that they had conceded nine goals in the three home games prior.
Palace lost to nil at Burnley and Wolves but those games came in between victories at Fulham and West Brom. Even the draw at West Ham in their last away outing could have ended in victory as they enjoyed the better of the chances. It's important to point out that even though they lost by seven in their last game, Palace are not a bad side. It was a freak result - not altogether uncommon for any team this term.
Villa's home form is probably best summed up by defeat against Brighton, that win being the only successful outcome for Albion across their last 13 in all competitions. Dean Smith's side clearly need to improve at Villa Park, and we shouldn't rule out Palace based on one result.
The context of Villa's record on their own patch is that they have won just one of four games against teams in the bottom-seven of the table. That was a 1-0 win over a Sheffield United side that played more than an hour with 10 men, and have since moved on to just two points after 14 games.
Palace need a response. Roy Hodgson's team will have been spending the week regathering themselves and ensuring they are far more organised this time out. Who knows, if Jordan Ayew hadn't put the ball behind Wilfried Zaha early on against Liverpool it could have been a very different story.
You can get close enough to even money if you shop around on Villa not to win this game, with most bookmakers going to 5/6 or 10/11.
Even with last week's result, I'm willing to put my faith in Palace to bounce back with at least a point.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Crystal Palace ()
It's a cracker to begin the Boxing Day feast of football as Leicester welcome Manchester United with both teams seeing some good results in recent weeks. This is a top-five encounter based on the form table, although United will fancy their chances of success given their perfect away record so far.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men beat Leeds 6-2 in a thriller on Sunday which could have easily finished 10-5. The newly-promoted side have a reputation for attacking football but their makeshift defence was punished at Old Trafford; we once again have two strong attacks on show here, but we can expect a lower scoring contest.
This is a game between two of the top-five in the form table although United will be confident of victory given their perfect league record on the road. They have won and scored at least three goals in all six of their away games.
Leicester have won four of their last six in all competitions and bounced back from a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Everton by beating Tottenham by the same scoreline on Sunday. In all of their recent victories, the Foxes posted the better xG (Expected Goals) rate, so they can take extra positives too.
A regular feature for the hosts has been penalties. Leicester have been awarded nine in the Premier League this season, eight of which they scored, and that gives them a comfortable margin over the four teams in joint-second with five. One of those is Manchester United.
Bruno Fernandes often provides winning anytime goalscorer bets and fantasy football points through his success from the spot.
It's 2/1 with Sky Bet that a penalty is scored in this encounter but the 6/4 on one being taken is good enough value without having to worry about the outcome. Throw in Mike Dean as the referee and that price looks even better - he's one of the few to have awarded at least three this season.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (22/12/20)
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