Premier League betting trends: Stattobets' Dave Pilgrim brings us betting tips & stats for goals, cards and corners

The Big Restart

Last week we took a journey through a few of the emerging trends from the top two divisions in Germany as we sought to understand a little of how football might have changed since the move behind closed doors. We’ve had another round of fixtures since then, with Portugal now well underway, a handful of games played in Greece last weekend, and now the return of both La Liga and Segunda in Spain.

As a result, with a larger sample, our initial hypotheses are now being more confidently proved or disproved, and it’s time to turn our eye to the Premier League and ask ourselves how these trends might affect things in the final few weeks of the English domestic season, and where we might find some angles to consider against the bookmakers.

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Home advantage has been eroded

There is now a wealth of evidence to support that our initial theories that soulless empty stadia would make playing at home less advantageous. Home win % has dropped through the floor, there's been just eight home wins from 46 Bundesliga matches since their restart, and the under-laying metrics also support this strongly.

Goals scored by home sides have averaged just 1.28 in Bundesliga – more usually they would be around 1.75. Away goals have been more prevalent as well, where we’ve witnessed a rise from 1.5 goals on average to 1.74. With shots and shots-on-target demonstrating similar trends, the evidence is certainly strong that hosts are not enjoying their usual advantage.

Winners

Arsenal might enjoy a lucky break. While they still need to play six away matches, it would have looked impossible for much of an upturn in fortunes before. Now perhaps they could sneak back into European contention. They will certainly be more optimistic about trips to Wolves and Spurs for example.

Sheffield United are another who would have had an uphill battle at the end of the season. They will now be more at ease with trips to Man United, Leicester, Southampton and Newcastle. Any one of those matches could prove pivotal in their ambitions of a Champions League spot.

Losers

It’s generally bad news for those sides who are struggling in the relegation zone.

Aston Villa are probably affected more than most since they’ve lost much of the edge they would have enjoyed from six home matches, with then just four away games left. Only one of their last 10 matches come against a bottom-seven side as well, which makes things increasingly difficult.

With five home games - notably against Burnley, West Ham and Brighton – things are looking much harder for Norwich, who are relegation certainties now. Their away matches give little cause for hope either as they still need to travel to Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.

Bournemouth are another who have lost an important edge – five of their final nine matches would have seen them enjoy a full home-advantage, and that could prove crucial as they host Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Southampton. With a bunch of really tough away matches I am now fearing for the Cherries.

Both Watford and West Ham have lost the home advantage of five of their final nine games, but, along with West Ham, will probably be happy enough given they have to play away at Newcastle and Norwich, while Watford still need to go to Burnley and West Ham.

Corner counts are marginally down