The first thing to say about this fixture is that, had Porto been able to play their home leg in Portugal, their current price of 4/1 would look far too big. After all, this is a Champions League quarter-final. However, given this match is being played in Sevilla, Porto struggle to represent value even at that big a price.
Porto are currently second in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, some nine points behind runaway leaders Sporting, so there really is a lot riding on this match for the 2004 champions, and the Portuguese side might just fancy their chances against Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea.
For all the talk that Chelsea will have been delighted with drawing Porto in the quarter-final stage, there is an argument to be had that drawing Chelsea was also potentially the best possible outcome for Sergio Conceicao’s men, avoiding the likes of Manchester City, Bayern Munich and PSG.
And it is not like the Portuguese side do not have Champions League pedigree, winning the competition in 2004, as well as dumping out Juventus in their round of 16 tie last month.
Chelsea are used to having plenty of ball, and on a lot of occasions in the Premier League, allowed to enjoy uncontested possession, but that will not be the case against this ferocious, high-pressing Porto side.
This will be a big test for Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea side after the weekend’s shock result against West Brom.
The 5-2 defeat against the Baggies ended a 14-game unbeaten streak since the German manager took charge at Stamford Bridge, and despite the fact that Chelsea did play much of the game with a man less after Thiago Silva’s red card, the Blues still looked off the pace, second to every ball and very sloppy in possession.
UNDER 1.5 GOALS is priced up at 2/1 with a few firms, and given the edginess with which this game could be played, that may just end up being a profitable selection.
Score prediction: Porto 0-0 Chelsea ()
Odds correct at 1630 BST (06/04/21)
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