It's two different tales in this season's Sky Bet Championship play-off final. Brentford will be hoping to end their wait for Premier League football while Swansea are seeking a return to England's top-flight. The Bees are favourites on the day and rightly so - Thomas Frank's men have been one of the eye-catching elements of the second tier in recent seasons.
They are odds-on to do it inside 90 minutes and they are capable of achieving that but Swansea's solid defensive unit may cause them problems. It's trying to find a balance between a Swansea side who saw 70% of their regular season games go under 2.5 goals coming against the division's top goalscorers.
It should be a good game for the neutral though and the occasion, combined with fans creating an atmosphere, will make it a watchable encounter. Brentford's second leg win over Bournemouth was a thriller - here's hoping for more of the same on Saturday.
Chris Kavanagh's appointment as referee may create some good value on offer in the cards market. He averages 3.67 cards per game and the average cards in the play-off finals over the past ten years sits at 3.8. It would be fair to assume that we could well see a couple here.
However, Brentford finished 20th for yellows over the regular season while Swansea were 21st for average fouls per game. While we may see some cards, there is every chance that this game could instead follow in the footsteps of recent finals that have seen just one across 90 minutes.
There are a couple of prices elsewhere that provide appeal though and the first is on the Brentford side of things with MATHIAS JENSEN a huge 11/1 for a goal anytime in 90 minutes. He should have had more than the two on his tally across the season.
The Bees midfielder is better known for his assists this season, with seven coming from an expected assists figure of 6.79. However, Infogol's expected goals model has him sitting on 4.15 instead of the 2 on his tally. Jensen has had chances to score but hasn't taken them as much as he should have.
The impressive thing with that is that only one of those nine assists came from being fouled for a penalty. Eight were as a result of a set-piece or from open play, with his ability to provide a threat through crosses being problematic for a lot of Championship defences.
Odds correct at 1930 BST (25/05/21)
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