Manchester United were nothing short of excellent last weekend against Manchester City, winning at the Etihad to extend their unbeaten away run in the Premier League to 22 games while ending the 21-game winning run of their rivals.
That unbeaten sequence clearly shows how good Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have been away from home, but unfortunately for them, this difficult fixture comes at Old Trafford.
They have won just six of 13 home games in the Premier League this season, losing four, and while their expected goal difference (xGD) of +8.4 at Old Trafford ranks them fifth among home teams, it is worth remembering that over half that tally came in the freak 9-0 win over Southampton.
Midweek saw them draw 1-1 with AC Milan in the Europa League, meaning that they have won just two of five home games in European matches too.
Playing at home is a problem for United.
The likes of Crystal Palace and Sheffield United have won at Old Trafford, and if you exclude the high-margin win over a Southampton side who were reduced to 10-men after two minutes, United have averaged a mediocre 1.62 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.30 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
Heading into the weekend, West Ham sit fifth in the Premier League table, just two points behind Chelsea with a game in hand. It has been some season for the Hammers.
Ex-Manchester United manager David Moyes has masterminded this incredible season, and the results have been fully deserved according to expected goals, with his side occupying a top six berth in Infogol’s xG table.
They come into this game having won four of their last six, with their only defeat in that time an undeserved one against Manchester City, where the Hammers created the better chances (xG: MCI 0.76 – 1.73 WHU).
Throw in the fact that United need a result in their upcoming second leg in Italy, and the fact that West Ham racked up the chances in the reverse game (xG: WHU 2.67 – 1.56 MUN), surrendering a 1-0 half-time lead to lose 3-1, and the even money available looks excellent value.
You probably know by now that West Ham are really good at set-pieces. In fact, 15 of their 42 goals (36%) this season have come from dead-ball situations, and their xG total from such scenarios (11.4) is bettered only by Chelsea (12.0).
It works out that 28% of their xGF total this season has come from set-plays.
In the other corner, we have a team in Manchester United who have shown vulnerabilities when defending the dead ball, as seen most recently in midweek when conceding a late equaliser from a corner against Milan.
They have conceded 10 goals from corners and set-pieces this season, which accounts for 31% of their goals conceded, with nearly 25% of their xGA this season coming from such situations.
It seems very strength versus weakness, and I think the best way to capitalise could be a big-priced goalscorer angle.
Michael Beardmore had success on Monday when backing Craig Dawson each-way in the first goalscorer market, and I am picking the same player here.
His xG/95 numbers since joining the Hammers have been extraordinary for a central defender, with Dawson averaging 0.22.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 West Ham ()
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (12/03/21)
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