Manchester City head into the final day of the Premier League season (almost) exactly where they want to be.
Beat Aston Villa and they will be champions of England for the fourth time in five seasons; some achievement.
I say almost because had they had won - not drawn - at West Ham last weekend, then realistically they would already have the title in the bag because of a vastly superior goal difference, with a point here having been enough to mathematically get them over the line.
TV Channel: Sky Sports
As a result, throughout 2021/22 a favourite selection has been to back Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals. Not recently though.
Since beating Atletico Madrid 1-0 on April 5 they have delivered only once in 11 matches with eight of those games breaching the Over 3.5 line.
Prior to a 2-2 draw with Liverpool in early April, which seemingly triggered the beginning of a stark change, 61% of City matches this season had seen fewer than four goals. Since then it’s just 27%.
As you’d expect, the market reflects this with Over 3.5 Goals a best price of 6/5 for this contest. The bookies are also taking a hefty margin by generally pricing the contrary at 4/6.
That is a price simply too good to turn down.
In pursuit of the title, it would be no shock to see City revert to the style which has served them so well for the vast majority of the campaign.
The narrative ahead of the match centres on Villa boss and Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard having the opportunity for redemption after his slip against Chelsea was pivotal in surrendering the title to Man City back in 2014.
But more relevant is the transformation he has overseen since replacing Dean Smith at Villa Park in terms of the team's defensive performances.
They rank as the eight-best team in the Premier League according to and would be even higher had he been in place all season. They won't make it easy for City.
Going the other way, though, it is hard to make a case for Villa to breach the Manchester City rear-guard - especially with so much on the line for Guardiola's men.
For all the flurry of goals recently they have still conceded only once in their last three league games at The Etihad. That's enough for me to get the 5/6 market-leading price from Paddy Power and Betfair for MAN CITY WIN TO NIL onside.
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Aston Villa ()
Odds correct 1600 BST (19/05/22)
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