As Great Escapes go, Leeds will need one to match Steve McQueen and co to retain their Premier League status this weekend.
For the second successive season, the Whites head into the last day firmly in the thick of the relegation dogfight and with their destiny out of their own hands.
But while they only needed to overhaul one team – Burnley – last year, this time they need two favours elsewhere from games involving relegation rivals Everton and Leicester.
And, of course, they must win their own game, at home to Tottenham, who need victory to have a chance of qualifying for the Europa Conference League, although how bothered they are about that is open to question.
It’s happened in almost half, 44%, of Leeds’ home games this season and even in two of three overall since supposedly defensive-minded boss Sam Allardyce took over.
In addition, 41% of Spurs’ matches this term have seen over 1.5 goals in the first half – the fact the hosts have to win but have kept just two first-half shutouts in 10 games bodes well here, considering the odds on offer.
He’s in prime form, scoring in 11 of his past 13 appearances for club and country, and is a top price 11/10 to net anytime so the jump of five times to do so with his head looks too good to turn down.
Finally, I can’t ignore the 15/2 on ROBIN KOCH to register 1+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET, especially given the game state means Leeds should be racking up set-pieces.
Only top scorer Rodrigo has more headers for Leeds than Koch’s 11 this season and in his past seven games the German utility man, usually employed as a centre-back, has attempted five headers – three were on target and one was blocked.
He’s worth a small stake to continue that trend considering Leeds must push here.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-2 Tottenham
Odds correct 1715 BST (24/05/23)
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