Watching Chelsea winning games to nil has become a regular occurrence during the Thomas Tuchel reign. Takumi Minamino remains the only opposition player to score against this back line through his 11 games at the helm. However, a trip to West Yorkshire to face Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds should see them concede.
The Blues are still good value for victory, even at odds-on, with Leeds failing to get the better of the teams higher up in the standings as the season has progressed. That's fine though, they are largely winning when they are meant to and we know they will keep their attacking approach for the test against Tuchel's men.
Chelsea's form makes them a strong bet for a top-four finish, a fine achievement given their position when Tuchel arrived, and the long term aim will be a serious charge at the title. They should gain three points at Elland Road, in a game that promises entertainment.
West Ham may hold a game in-hand on Chelsea but the Blues have two points more with ten games of the campaign remaining. Three points in Saturday's early kick-off will move them level on points with Leicester, and one behind Manchester United, with second still up for grabs.
While 2/7 is on offer for a top-four finish, the 10/3 with Sky Bet on a straight forecast for Manchester City 1st and Chelsea 2nd looks a real value play. A win over Leeds will surely see those odds shorten as we enter the final stage of the season.
Manchester United do hold a superior goal difference (+23 to +19) but Chelsea's strong defensive record gives them every chance of overtaking them in that metric too. Even with a Leeds goal a real possibility, they can capitalise on a leaky defence to win by a couple of goals.
While all eyes will be on the likes of Raphinha and Patrick Bamford, there is a value play in the assists market and that comes in the form of DIEGO LLORENTE, who is 28/1 with Ladbrokes. He almost had an assist last time out with his driven through ball playing Bamford in but the Leeds striker curled the ball wide of the post.
That was the second consecutive game where he had registered a key pass at some stage across the 90 minutes. That is a pass that led directly to a good attacking opportunity. Leeds' goal at Stamford Bridge came as a result of a through ball capitalising on the slow duo of Thiago Silva and Kurt Zouma and Bielsa may target this as a route to success again.
If it's not playing one through for Bamford, there is the long ball out wide to both wingers, of which Raphinha can cause issues as he looks to cut inside and shoot. He is no stranger to a goal from distance and one of those going in will result in a Llorente assist.
Guessing the Chelsea front three is becoming a real task, with Tuchel giving Pep Guardiola a run for his money when it comes to rotation. Last week he went with Kai Havertz operating as more of a centre forward, with Timo Werner on the right and Callum Hudson-Odoi on the left.
Werner's preference to drift left saw Tuchel remind him of his duties, as picked up by the pitchside microphones. The conversation, in German, had Tuchel complaining that Werner was spending too much time on the left when he was on the right.
It will be interesting to see where he lines up this week but Werner may take the central role with Havertz and MASON MOUNT taking the two spots behind him. While we target Mount for goals and assists, and he was an inch away from delivering a 20/1 winner against Liverpool, there is real value in taking him to have four or more tackles on Saturday.
It's a side of his game that goes unnoticed given his attacking input but Mount regularly posts a high amount of tackles. A third of his Premier League appearances this season have seen him have three or more successful tackles, with four in 24 minutes as he was substituted on against Everton.
He's had at least one tackle in seven of his eight starts under Tuchel and he should return to the XI here. Leeds are a high tackles team (19 per 90 minutes) and that usually drags up the opposition's number too. The last four teams to play Leeds have all seen 14 or more tackles.
He picked up an assist in that win as he was fouled for the penalty, which Jorginho scored, and I'm not concerned with his assists record so far this season (four in the Premier League). That performance gives hope to the fact he is returning to his best and that can only be a good thing.
With Chelsea expected to score a few, Havertz is worth investigating in the assists market as we remain hopeful he will get a run of games in the side now. He registered a key pass in Tuchel's first game against Wolves and then one in the ten minutes he was on the pitch for against Burnley.
With Chelsea odds-on for victory, and a win with goals pushing the price just above even money, the better value comes in the three plays mentioned above and backing HAVERTZ, LLORENTE and MOUNT having some impact on the contest.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-3 Chelsea ()
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (11/03/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit .
Further support and information can be found at and .