I've never believed that the play-offs are a lottery. A host of factors go into a usual play-off scenario; recent form, performances in big matches and results against each other to name a few. There are ways to work through scenarios. However, this year isn't a usual play-off scenario.

We have to acknowledge the circumstances. These four teams have secured their spots after a points-per-game equation was applied and they've only played 36/37 games as opposed to the usual 46. They've not kicked a ball competitively since March and now they have around two weeks to prepare for a series of future-defining games.

We simply can't view this edition of the play-offs as the same as any other; that the enforced absence as thrown much into disarray. It'll still have the same excitement that comes with any promotion battle, but it must be accepted that making predictions doesn't involve the same process, the same calculation, as in previous seasons.

Sky Bet League Two play-off schedule

First legs - Thursday 18th June

• Colchester v Exeter - 17:15
• Northampton v Cheltenham - 19:45

Second legs - Monday 22nd June

• Exeter v Colchester - 17:15
• Cheltenham v Northampton - 20:00

Final (Wembley Stadium)

• Monday 29th June - 19:30

The break came with these four teams experiencing mixed fortunes. Cheltenham were in fine form and enjoying a six-game unbeaten run of which five ended in victory. For Northampton, they'd lost five of their previous seven while Colchester had been beaten four times over the same period. Exeter had failed to win in any of their last four.

It's not right to simply dismiss those results but they can no longer constitute form; it's been far too long between those fixtures and now. It could be said that Colchester and Northampton might have dropped out of the top-seven altogether based on their previous results, but instead they're handed a huge opportunity.

So how do we actually predict who will win a play-off scenario like this? In deciding a winner, the following four factors will be considered:

• Form at the beginning of the season
• Results following any postponed fixtures
• Results against other play-off teams
• Results in quick succession

This does have the feel of the start of a new season given the time off, not a way of finishing the current campaign. Results following postponed fixtures also gives us some insight how teams adjust following previously unscheduled weeks off and the games against each other are a good indicator of how the teams match up, particularly if they were played post-Christmas.

Analysing the results for a team over a midweek period where three games have been played is another way of judging how well these teams adjust to fixtures in quick succession; these play-offs will last just 11 days with the final at the unusual time of 19:30 on a Monday.

Of course, this formula may have flaws. We simply can't know for certain how teams will react following the lengthy delay and some may hit the ground running while others don't. That's just a part of this new scenario. Some may use this to form the basis of a case to back the outsiders and that's fine. Nobody can definitively come up with an answer for how this will play out.

But this is how we're going to approach it - starting by looking at the two semi-finals.

Colchester v Exeter