This tie is very finely poised heading into the second leg in Turin, with Porto taking a 2-1 lead to the Allianz, though that very late away goal conceded in Portugal could end up proving costly.
Last season, Juventus were knocked out at this stage by Lyon having lost the first leg 1-0, and the lack of an away goal proved their undoing, so their chances of progressing this season have been greatly boosted by Federico Chiesa’s 82nd-minute goal.
The Old Lady’s main issues this season have come away from home, so it wasn’t a surprise to see them lose at the Dragão, though the manner of the deserved loss was very alarming (xG: POR 1.41 – 0.76 JUV).
Andrea Pirlo’s side have won just two of their last six away matches in all competitions, losing three, but they have made the Allianz Stadium a fortress, losing just two of 20 there this season, winning 14.
That is reflected in their underlying expected goals (xG) numbers, as they have averaged 2.07 expected goals for (xGF) per game and 0.95 expected goals against (xGA) per game in 16 matches across Serie A and the Champions League.
Juve swatted Lazio aside at home this past weekend while resting many key starters, including the Champions League’s all-time top scorer – Cristiano Ronaldo.
Porto capitalised on some uncharacteristic defensive errors in what was a poor first-leg performance from the Italians, but will need a lot more in this second meeting if they are to pull off the upset and progress.
I am expecting them to face wave after wave of pressure as Juve look for at least one goal, which could provide chances on the break, but while they have conceded only four goals in seven UCL games this term, Porto have conceded chances equating to 9.4 xGA.
They are giving up opportunities, and who better to punish them than one of the greatest finishers the game has ever seen – especially in this competition.
Also, his aerial prowess is unmatched in the modern game, so the Sky Bet-boosted price about the all-time Champions League record scorer to notch with his head at 7/1 looks another way in.
20% of his league goals this season have been headers, while 18% of his 134 UCL goals have come via his head.
Score prediction: Juventus 3-0 Porto ()
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (08/03/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit .
Further support and information can be found at and .