Just how unlucky are Brighton? Expected goals analysis of Graham Potter's side

This article was published before Saturday's 1-0 defeat to West Brom.

After Newcastle lost to Chelsea in the Monday Night Football on February 15, Gary Neville said the same negativity and concern prevalent in discussions on Steve Bruce’s side should also be applied to Brighton.

While a glance at the Premier League table would deem Neville as correct, with the Seagulls just a point above Newcastle and four above the relegation zone, his assumption that the two sides are in the same predicament is wrong.

What is expected goals (xG)?

• Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
• Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
• Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
• takes into account performances over the season so far and ranks teams on expected points (xP) as opposed to actual points, giving a true reflection of where a team should be

Bruce's team are rightly in a relegation battle, with performances over the course of the season ranking them 17th in the Infogol expected goals (xG) table.

Brighton should be challenging for European football according to the same metric.

So after finishing 15th last season, why do they find themselves so close to the drop zone yet again?

Why are Brighton so unlucky, especially at home?

Anyone who watched this week’s Monday Night Football will likely be asking themselves how on Earth Brighton failed to win.

Crystal Palace played out the ultimate smash-and-grab, netting a completely undeserved winner deep into stoppage time with just their third shot of the game (0.27 xG).

Albion were the aggressors. On the front foot, playing nice football - but it wasn’t all style and no substance at the Amex. They racked up a whopping 3.03 expected goals for (xGF) from 25 shots.

Based on the quality of chances created by both teams, we would expect Brighton to win that game 91% of the time; Palace - 2%.

Unfortunately for Graham Potter, this isn’t a one-off.

In fact, near enough the same thing happened in their previous home game against Aston Villa, where the Seagulls racked up 2.44 xGF and allowed just 0.14 expected goals against (xGA) but were held to a 0-0 draw.

On that occasion, Brighton would be expected to win 88% of the time; the draw comes out at 11%.