Not everything’s a lesson in life, sometimes you just fail.
That was the case last Friday at the Riverside where I pitched Middlesbrough’s clash with Ipswich as a cagey, low scoring top of the table clash.
It was anything but. Any yet, after George Hirst’s penalty miss and a Cedric Kipre own goal, the no first goalscorer punt was still miraculously alive at half time.
Obviously the bet didn’t win nor was it the first time I was miles off it this season nor will it be the last.
Looking ahead though, the fixture list has smiled on us this weekend by pitting together a couple of brilliant set piece mis-matches.
Thus, the theme of the column is centre-back goalscorers. A slab-head special. Small stakes, big prices and a lot o' laughs along the way.
Having said that, we start at Deepdale on Friday night with some whopping card prices.
On his day, referee Farai Hallam can wield the cards.
Across seven Championship appearances this term, he has dished out seven cards three times. He has also given no cards once this term so lets hope he is in the mood at Deepdale.
To be fair, these two sides could entice him. Preston racked up the second most cards in the second tier last season (113Y 5R) and Sheffield United ranked seventh (95Y 4R) for ill-discipline.
I wouldn’t say there's any needle to this fixture but there is a bit of narrative with PNE boss Paul Heckingbottom and Blades boss Chris Wilder exchanging stints in S2.
Both managers are pretty similar characters and they set similar stalls out in terms of formation, tactics and endeavour. It all points towards a closely thought contest on Friday and hopefully one with plenty of yellows.
I was surprised to see ANDREW HUGHES at 6/1 TO BE CARDED. While he may have a career cards per 90 average of 0.12, he has began to pick them up a lot more frequently since hitting 30-years-old.
Hughes has a cards per 90 average of 0.23 across the last four seasons and has five yellows in twice as many league appearances this term. The spike this term could have something to do with the fact he is basically playing as a left back, as the heatmap above shows.
For the visitors, SYDIE PECK looks a standout price TO BE CARDED at 15/4. The central midfielder already has four cards to his name this season and is as short as 12/5 with some firms.
Naturally, the CARD DOUBLE is worth a poke at 20/1.
There’s only so many times I can re-word the same spiel about Ipswich and their goals record in the Championship at Portman Road.
But this angle has been very kind to us and the bookies keep pricing OVER 2.5 GOALS and OVER 4.5 GOALS at backable prices, so why stop now?
Foolishly, I took a sabbatical from these angles ahead of the Old Farm Derby. I was dazzled by Norwich’s price which in hindsight was a terrible and stupid decision.
Nonetheless, over 2.5 goals has clicked in all bar one of the Tractor Boys six league home games and the high line has clicked once, although it has gone within a goal on two separate occasions.
West Brom’s away games have also been pretty goal heavy with overs clicking in two thirds of their six matches.
Steve Cotterill’s return to CHELTENHAM has almost been faultless.
He was re-appointed after a 23-year hiatus following Cheltenham’s 7-1 loss at Grimsby. The Robins beat Fleetwood in his first game back, won at Newport in their last league outing and drew at Gillingham in between but were desperately unlucky in the latter as they conceded in the 95th minute.
So, they’re unbeaten and have taken seven points from a possible nine.
Saturday’s opponents are League Two leaders Walsall.
I wouldn't say they are in a false position but may be slightly fortunate to top the fourth tier as they are overachieving their underlying metrics at both ends of the field and their expected points has them in 13th.
Mat Sadler’s are also winless in three.
All things considered, the 17/5 about the hosts TO WIN feels a touch too big.
Sheffield Wednesday are the worst set piece side in the division. As if they didn’t have enough issues to deal with.
They top the second tiers charts for both actual goals against (8) and expected goals against (7.08) from dead ball situations.
Three opposition central defenders have profited against them this season and unfortunately for the Owls, Oxford have scored the majority of their goals from set pieces this campaign (55%).
MICHAL HELIK is their primary threat.
He hasn’t broke his duck yet this season but he netted five for the U’s last season (0.25 goals per 90). This is a centre back who once scored nine times in a season (Huddersfield 23/24) and has a career goals per 90 average of 0.10.
At 11/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, his price is simply too big this weekend, some firms have gone as short as 11/2.
CIARON BROWN should partner him in central defence. He is by no means as prolific but that is probably why you can get 18/1 on him TO SCORE ANYTIME.
That’s not to say he isn’t a threat. Brown has netted 12 times across the last four seasons at Oxford, four of which coming last campaign (0.10 goals per 90).
Here is the other set piece mis-match.
Leyton Orient have shipped eight goals from them and an expected goals against of 7.32 this season, the latter is the highest tally in League One. What’s more, four centre backs have scored against the O’s in 13 league games.
Saturday’s opponents Lincoln have scored five times from dead balls and racked up an expected goals of 6.02 (3rd).
Their centre back SONNY BRADLEY has scored three times this season and at 14/1 is a standout price TO SCORE ANYTIME.
TOM HAMER is also worth covering in the same market. He got two goals in the league last term and with a career goals per 90 average of 0.07, quotes of 16/1 are too big.
It is worth noting Adam Jackson could start on Saturday. Although he wasn’t in the squad in his side's last outing due to a knock, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on team news.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (23/10/25)
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