Doku won an average of 1.86 fouls per 90 in the Premier League last season, and won 2.23 fouls per 90 at Euro 2024 for Belgium.
His direct opponent, Malo Gusto, isn’t the most foul prone right back, averaging just 1.23 per 90 last season, so taking the angle from a Doku perspective covers us for other players hacking down the Belgian.
This bet won five times in his last eight starts at the back end of last season, and is priced as short as 4/11 in places. With Oscar Bobb and Jack Grealish both expected to be out, Doku should get a good run out at Stamford Bridge.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-3 Manchester City ()
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist in Man Utd vs Fulham (20:00) at 2/1 (Betfair)
1.5pts Diogo Jota to score anytime in Ipswich vs Liverpool (12:30) at 13/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Omari Hutchinson 1+ assist in Ipswich vs Liverpool (12:30) at 10/1 (bet365)
2.5pts Alexander Isak to score anytime in Newcastle vs Southampton (15:00) at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Alexander Isak to score a brace in Newcastle vs Southampton (15:00) at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Daniel Munoz to commit 2+ fouls in Brentford vs Palace (14:00) at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The Premier League is back, and aren't you lot lucky eh? Because with the return of the top flight comes another season of my column, packed with bad jokes, references to underlying data and hopefully plenty of winning tips.
Replicating last season's overall profit would be great, though strides need to be made in the Premier League...
The Portuguese star looked sensational in the Community Shield with his passing and link-up play, barely missing a beat in his first game back after the Euros.
As mentioned in my outright column, he is United's creator-in-chief, topping their expected assist (xA) charts by a wide, wide margin last term, generating nearly 7.0 more xA than next best Alejandro Garnacho.
He will create chances in this opener, and the fact he is on set-pieces also helps this bet.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Fulham ()
Reports out of Anfield are that Jota is new manager Arne Slot's preferred number nine ahead of Darwin Nunez, which immediately makes him appeal. Last season, despite playing nearly 1000 fewer minutes than Nunez, Jota only scored one fewer Premier League goal.
Jota's xG per 90 stats are consistently impressive, averaging 0.52, 0.62, 0.52 and 0.42 in his season's at Liverpool, and - unlike Nunez - he is a reliable finisher. He'll get chances on Saturday, and 13/8 looks large.
I actually went into the Ipswich assist market hoping to back Leif Davis, but at 9/2 I thought he was short enough, and then after doing a bit of digging, it became pretty obvious Hutchinson was overpriced.
He registered five assists last season and averaged 0.21 xA per 90, which is only marginally behind Davis' average last term, with the left-back racking up more assists thanks to some excellent finishing plus more minutes on the pitch.
I was shocked to see Hutchinson more than double the price of his teammate despite creating a similar amount of opportunities, and am happy to have a small speculative play in what should be a high-scoring, end-to-end encounter.
Score prediction: Ipswich 2-2 Liverpool ()
It's all change at Brighton with a new manager at the helm, but I suspect we will see a similar style to Roberto De Zerbi - aggressive, high-pressing attack minded football, as Tom Carnduff's Notebook column details.
Everton have fared well against that approach in recent meetings and I suspect they will relish this test in a game that will allow them to sit back and counter.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Brighton ()
The Swede finished last season impressively, bagging 11 in his last 12 league outings and eight in his last six home matches. Ending 23/24 with a 0.81 xG per 90, he was bettered only by Erling Haaland in that statistic, so his 5/6 to find the net against a defensively suspect newly-promoted side looks large.
Given I expect Newcastle to score a fair few, I'll also have a small bet on ISAK TO SCORE A BRACE at 4/1.
Across his last five home games of last season, the Swede scored three braces against West Ham, Tottenham and Sheffield United as Newcastle plundered a combined 13 goals.
Score prediction: Newcastle 4-1 Southampton ()
He averaged 1.88 fouls per 90 in 23/24, and finished the season hitting 2+ fouls in eight of his last 11. He carried that form into the Copa America, making 13 fouls in five outings, so the 10/11 looks large on Sunday.
While the Colombian did join up with the Eagles later after a deep Copa run, he started their last pre-season friendly, so I fully expect him to start here.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace ()
Odds correct at 1300 BST (15/08/24)
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