Last weekend was one of being on the right thread but not being rewarded.
We were on Trevoh Chalobah to score anytime as Chelsea went to Nottingham Forest, with it anyone's guess as to who his centre-back partner would be, and it was said partner who scored instead of our man. Right lines, wrong player.
Jake O'Brien committed two fouls up against Jeremy Doku but avoided a card, while Ryan Sessegnon committed four fouls and didn't have his name taken as Fulham lost to Arsenal in yet another no card game from Anthony Taylor. Double blow.
Mohammed Kudus committed two fouls and avoided a card on Sunday, but the biggest sickner came at Anfield, where we were on Matthijs de Ligt to score anytime and I even went out of my way to highlight Harry Maguire should he get the nod. He did, and he scored. Nightmare.
Monday was more 'close but no cigar' with Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg both having shots against West Ham but none on target, making it a second straight losing weekend.
Hopefully we bounce this weekend, as clearly we are on the right lines and thought path with the angles highlighted.
**I've gone early with Friday's game, published on Tuesday, as I'm off Wednesday celebrating a big-ish birthday, so wanted to get ahead. Hopefully the prices hold for those who get to this later in the week, though I have added minimum prices I'd take in the Leeds vs West Ham section.**
Well, West Ham were BAAAADD on Monday weren't they. A 2-0 home loss to a supposed fellow relegation rival, losing the shot count 22-7, the shot on target count 7-1, the big chances created 5-0 and the xG battle 2.37 - 0.35. It was a shellacking.
Nuno Espirito Santo's men now head north to face another supposed fellow relegation rival in what really does feel like must-win for the Hammers. Not only are they second bottom and three points from safety heading into gameweek nine, but their schedule is horrific after this up to Boxing Day (NEW, BUR, BOU, LIV, MUN, BHA, AVL, MCI).
Leeds' recent performance was a contrast to West Ham's despite the same result at Burnley, with Daniel Farke's men dominating every major statistical category and being incredibly unfortunate not to get a result (xG: BUR 0.45 - 2.63 LEE).
They are a tempting price at 10/11 on Friday, but we'll instead swing big and stick with the set-piece angle when it comes to the Hammers. While they didn't concede from a set-piece on Monday, that was more down to good fortune rather than Nuno having sorted them out.
The Bees racked up 1.04 xG from set-plays alone in that game, taking eight shots, with both centre-backs getting having an effort on goal. Unfortunately for us they were off-target, but the point still stands that the Hammers remain extremely vulnerable from set-pieces.
It's eight goals conceded, 50 shots faced and 5.10 xG allowed from dead-balls on the season, so we have to persist with this angle until it's magically fixed, meaning JOE RODON 1+ TOTAL SHOT is a standout bet at 11/10.
Leeds rank eighth for set-piece shots this season, scoring three times, and Rodon has had a shot in all of his last three league appearances, taking seven in total.
Odds correct at 1800 BST (21/10/25)
My first thought with this game was 'Chelsea win to nil'. It's priced at 7/5 and the Blues, along with only keeping four clean sheets in 12 games across all competitions, have been shipping chances for fun of late.
Nottingham Forest put up 2.35 xG on them, Liverpool 1.95, Brighton 2.28, Man Utd 1.84, Brentford 1.43. I know there are some caveats in there, but still, those figures are worrying, and this season the Blues rank 13th best in terms of xGA conceded.
So, a change of approach - where are the Blues conceding chances from? Well, sorry to harp back to set-pieces, but the answer is - yep set-pieces.
No team in the Premier League this season has conceded more xG from dead-ball situations than Enzo Maresca's side. A whopping 42% of their total expected goals against have come from set-pieces, which is the highest rate in the league.
They have been fortunate not to have conceded more from dead-balls, with five teams conceding more goals than them despite the Blues topping the charts. This looks an avenue to attack, and Sunderland look a good team to take advantage of it.
Hard to break down and pacey on the counter attack, they should win enough corners and free-kicks to give their huge set-piece threats a chance to trot up from the back. Three of them have already scored this season.
DAN BALLARD is the obvious threat, and we simply have to back him to have just 1+ TOTAL SHOT at even money given everything discussed. The Northern Irishman has delivered in every league game bar one this season - with that failure coincidentally the game were were on him and he went off injured after eight minutes.
He's averaging a huge 2.32 shots per 90, while last season he registered a shot in 10 of his 15 Championship starts. Given the leaky nature of Chelsea's defending from set-pieces, I'll happily advise a couple of swings at big prices, with the 4/1 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET and 16/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, as I'd be sick if he were to score and we only claimed small profit on him having a shot.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Sunderland ()
Odds correct at 1210 BST (23/10/25)
I really like the look of NEWCASTLE this season. They are built from the back, being tough to beat, and are carrying a dangerous threat in attack. Only Arsenal (0.60) have a better defensive process this season than the Magpies (0.73), and that can carry Eddie Howe's side to another WIN TO NIL here.
That defensive process comes despite a tough schedule that has seen them play six sides who finished in last season's top nine, while they have been dominant in their latest two European contests.
Fulham make the long trip north having been 1-0'd by the Arsenal last weekend as they continue to struggle creating chances. It's three straight defeats now for Marco Silva's side, with the Cottagers generating just 1.03 xGF per game across the campaign so far which ranks fifth worst.
Away from home that drops to 0.86 xGF per game, which, up against such a stern defence, could see them fire another blank.
It is also worth pointing out for those who will be hesitant given Newcastle played in midweek, that Howe rotated for that game, with Joelinton, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Elanga all given a rest, which should mean the hosts have plenty of juice on Saturday.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-0 Nottingham Forest ()
Odds correct at 1225 BST (23/10/25)
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