It's fair to say that these two teams will be the sides battling it out for the title come the end of the season. The importance of this game in the season-long race? I'll let you decide.
Last season's two head-to-heads between Pep Guardiola and his disciple Mikel Arteta were hugely entertaining contests full of chances, goals, fouls and cards. I am of course joking.
The two games were barely watchable, with both teams cancelling eachother out and both being happy with a draw on both occasions, even if Arsenal did nick a 1-0 win at the Emirates.
In total across two matches there was one goal, 34 shots, six shots on target, 2.57 xG, 44 fouls and seven cards. The away team in both matches mustered just four (Man City) and six (Arsenal) shots.
This obviously landed in this game last season, and by taking the no first scorer instead of the 0-0 correct score, we are covered if the only goal(s) in the game is an own goal.
Given I expect to see a close repeat of last season, the Arsenal foul line looks to be too low. We know how the game is going to go, with City the aggressors and Arsenal digging in, just like last season, and I think we could see plenty of niggly fouls to slow City down.
ARSENAL TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS is a cracking bet at 5/4. It's 5/6 in places.
In this game last season the Gunners committed 20 fouls, while so far this season they are averaging 13.8 fouls per game. They committed 16 at Villa Park and had they not been so comfortable (or Spurs so poor and passive), they would have cleared this line with ease last weekend after committing seven in the first half.
For those that want a ladder, it's 15/8 for 14+, 9/2 for 16+ and 15/2 for 17+.
Score prediction: Manchester City 0-0 Arsenal ()
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Noni Madueke 3+ total shots in West Ham vs Chelsea at 11/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Wolves to commit 14+ fouls vs Aston Villa at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Kenny Tete to commit 2+ fouls in Fulham vs Newcastle at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime in Leicester vs Everton at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Michael Keane to score anytime in Leicester vs Everton at 14/1 (bet365)
2pts Tottenham 8+ corners vs Brentford at 11/10 (Boylesports)
1pt Tottenham 10+ corners vs Brentford at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Tottenham 12+ corners vs Brentford at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime in Tottenham vs Brentford at 16/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ethan Pinnock to score anytime in Tottenham vs Brentford at 22/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30
2.5pts Manuel Ugarte to commit 2+ fouls and make 3+ tackles in C Palace vs Man Utd (17:30) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Sunday
2pts Carlos Baleba to commit 2+ fouls in Brighton vs N Forest (14:00) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
We had a cracking week last weekend, posting +6pts profit to get us right back in the green.
My favourite bet of the lot landed too, with Tottenham out-cornering Arsenal (just), making it a successful column. Hopefully we can find more profit this weekend, though as you can see by the staking plan, we have a few different approaches.
We've multiple plays on multiple games, but that's only due to angles that have presented themselves. Hopefully this approach sees us rewarded, and it would be lovely if a centre-back scorer (or two) found the net.
The team who have conceded the most shots in the Premier League through four games isn't Southampton, or Ipswich, or even Leicester. It's West Ham. That surprised me.
They have allowed 73 attempts, an average of 18.3 per game, so I was immediately drawn to Chelsea player shot lines, and NONI MADUEKE's price of 11/8 for 3+ TOTAL SHOTS looked value. The same bet is 8/11 in places.
The Englishman has had a solid start to the season under Enzo Maresca, creating plenty and getting plenty of shots away.
I'm going back to the well with WOLVES TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS this weekend, with the line and the price still good to turn down.
It landed comfortably last weekend against Newcastle, Gary O'Neil's side finishing on 17, and the recommended ladder play (14+, 15+, 16+, 17+) flew in.
This game looks pretty tough to call, but I am very surprised to see a price of even money for Fulham right-back KENNY TETE TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
Not only is this due to his match-up, but his recent record.
Tete has averaged 1.5 fouls per 90 this season, with this bet landing in both home games so far, which is no surprise given the Cottagers do have more of a go in front of their own fans.
This is a big game for both teams, but there looks a lovely betting angle available, with a strength meeting a weakness.
The strength is Everton's dangerous nature from set-pieces, the weakness is Leicester's issues in defending the dead-ball.
Since the start of last season, no team has generated more xG from set-plays than the Toffees (19.47), while this season they have already scored twice through four games from dead-ball situations.
Keane also scored once last season in limited game time, while Tarkowski found the net once but had 25 shots and 2.6 xG. Both should get a chance or two here, so let's hope they can convert. You never know, maybe they both score...
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Everton ()
Liverpool looked excellent in midweek at Milan, dominating that game despite going behind early. This looks a tough test on paper, but I feel as though the Reds will have enough to beat Bournemouth's press - the Cherries likely to set-up differently to Nottingham Forest last week.
Forest were happy to frustrate and counter, whereas I think Bournemouth will play on the front foot. Andoni Iraola had success against the big boys in Spain playing that way, but hasn't so far in England. Against the top six last season the Cherries lost 10 of 12, conceding 33 times.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Bournemouth ()
There are two angles I want to attack in this match, a game I think could be very problematic for Tottenham.
The first is Spurs corners. We had great success last weekend backing them as outsiders to win most corners, this week we pivot to back TOTTENHAM 8+ CORNERS at even money.
Ange Postecoglou's side racked up seven against Arsenal last weekend, but through four games this season have hit a league high 44 (11 per game on average) with this bet landing in their first three matches. Their style is conducive to winning corners, pressing high and getting the ball to the by-line.
Tottenham have hit both higher lines in three of four games this season, the exception being the North London derby, while Brentford allowed 12 corners last week at Manchester City.
The second angle is to back a Brentford centre-back goalscorer. Tottenham's set-piece issue is real, and shows no sign of being resolved. Gabriel Maghalhaes scored the winner last weekend from a corner, and became the sixth centre-back this calendar year (23 competitive games) to find the back of the net.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Brentford ()
This is another very tricky game to call. The most recent meeting saw Palace wallop United 4-0, though this should obviously be much closer than that.
I want to focus on the newest Red Devil, MANUEL UGARTE.
He looks to be the player they have been crying out for. A destroyer with an engine who can plug the gaping holes that we've witnessed over the last season and a bit.
Last season at PSG, Ugarte 4.56 tackles and 2.14 fouls per 90. The season before at Sporting Lisbon he averaged 4.64 tackles and 2.45 fouls per 90. The season before he averaged 3.66 tackles and 2.76 fouls per 90.
We only need him to hit his historic averages here for a winner, and the early signs suggest he's more than up to the challenge at United.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-2 Manchester United ()
As discussed numerous times in this column, Brighton's deepest-lying midfielder is being asked to do an awful lot.
The last time we looked into this angle was ahead of their trip to Arsenal, where we tipped up Billy Gilmour TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS only for him to be sold to Napoli, before pivoting to CARLOS BALEBA, who duly obliged by landing the bet.
I think at even-money we can go back in again this weekend. The same bet is 1/2 in places.
Baleba only committed one foul last weekend against Ipswich, but made three tackles, and he also made three tackles against Arsenal, just highlighting the defensive workload he has been getting through.
Odds correct at 1045 BST (20/09/24)
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